Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (80%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ettifaq face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 9W 1D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 8 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 53% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 56% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 0.92 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.872 / defence 1.281 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.691 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.703 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.691 — the away xG of 3.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Al-Ettifaq games / 45 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 6% | Draw 13% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 16.67 | Draw 7.69 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (80%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 4.12. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.12 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 78% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 6% | Draw 13% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 80% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Ettifaq 0.92 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.872 / def 1.281 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.691 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
3.19
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
59%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 5 November 2026 at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Abdullah Al Dabil Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 6% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 80% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 8W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.69x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 3.19.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-3, at 8.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (8.3%), 1-3 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
6%
15.72
13%
7.53
80%
1.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 3
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.3%
Away win
1 – 3
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
4.12
3.19
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
15.72
6%
Home win
7.53
13%
Draw
1.24
80%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
4%
24.41
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
0%
–
32%
3.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 4.5 |
| 1 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 4.2 |
| 2 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 4 | – | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 3.19 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 4.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ettifaq's recent record stands at 18W 12D 15L from 45 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 35W 9D 1L across 45 games — 2.53 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ettifaq have managed 7W 8D 7L from 22 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 17W 5D 0L across 22 trips, a 2.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.60 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 18W 12D 15L in their last 45 games (1.47 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 35W 9D 1L in their last 45 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.32 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.55 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-5 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Ettifaq
2
Draws
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 59%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al-Ettifaq and 64% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 46%; Al-Ettifaq have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al-Ettifaq's games and 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al-Ettifaq's matches and 64% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.