Al-Ettifaq 3-0 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Baten make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 9 September 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Baten's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Baten have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Baten away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.10 for Al Baten. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Al-Ettifaq 1W, Al Baten 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al Baten — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 53% versus Al Baten 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 53% | Al Baten 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.34 xG and Al Baten 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.031 / defence 1.212 | Al Baten attack 0.859 / defence 1.191. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.140. Data: 32 Al-Ettifaq games / 32 Al Baten games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Draw 27% | Al Baten 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Al Baten 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ettifaq 70% | Al Baten 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 40% | Draw 27% | Al Baten 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.34 / Al Baten 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.031 / def 1.212 | Al Baten attack 0.859 / def 1.191 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Al Baten xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 9 September 2022 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten?
Al-Ettifaq 3 - 0 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 40% chance of winning, Al Baten a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 1W | Draws 1 | Al Baten 0W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Al Baten (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Al Baten's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.86x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.74
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.52
1.19
Al Baten xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 1.19 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Al-Ettifaq have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 8W 11D 13L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Baten's form line: 8W 9D 15L from 32 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Al Baten, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.03 for Al Baten. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Ettifaq have posted 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
On the road, Al Baten have gone 2W 4D 10L from 16 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.97 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al Baten
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 8W 11D 13L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 8W 9D 15L in their last 32 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Baten away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.06 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 3-0 on 9 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al Baten have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Al Baten 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 62%, Al Baten 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al-Ettifaq) and 44% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Al Baten in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Baten?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 38% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 44% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Baten in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ettifaq run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Baten.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Baten 3-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.34 xG and Al Baten 1.19 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Baten landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.03 / defence 1.21 against Al Baten attack 0.86 / defence 1.19, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 40% | Draw 27% | Al Baten 33%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 53%, Al Baten 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Baten's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.09 PPG, Al Baten 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al Baten (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.