Al-Ettifaq 2-1 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ettifaq at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Baten make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al-Ettifaq in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 16:55 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.36 xG and Al Baten 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Al Baten attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.005. Data: 0 Al-Ettifaq games / 0 Al Baten games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 46% | Draw 27% | Al Baten 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Al Baten 3.70. Al-Ettifaq hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 16:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 46% | Draw 27% | Al Baten 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.36 / Al Baten 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Al Baten attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Al Baten xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten kicked off at 16:55 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten?
Al-Ettifaq 2 - 1 Al Baten.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 46% chance of winning, Al Baten a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Ettifaq's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Al Baten's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Al Baten's attack (0.85x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.65
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.35
0.98
Al Baten xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.98 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Baten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Pre-Season
Al Baten
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 3-0 on 9 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Baten — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, Al Baten have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Al Baten 1-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Baten?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Baten 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Baten 2-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.36 xG and Al Baten 0.98 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Al Baten attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 46% | Draw 27% | Al Baten 27%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.