Al Baten 1-2 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC meet at Al-Batin FC Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 January 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Baten have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Baten have posted 3W 2D 5L at Al-Batin FC Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Al Baten are significantly better at Al-Batin FC Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Al-Ittihad FC are the stronger side — 1.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al Baten, 1 for Al-Ittihad FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Baten goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 43% versus Al-Ittihad FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 55% | Al-Ittihad FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 0.96 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.910 / defence 1.411 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.114 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.165. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Al Baten games / 42 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 19% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 58%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Baten 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 19% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Baten 0.96 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.910 / def 1.411 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.114 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Al-Ittihad FC xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Baten 1 - 2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 19% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al Baten 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Baten (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Baten's attack at 0.91x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.11x) against Al Baten's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
19%
5.14
23%
4.41
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Al Baten xG
Total xG
2.79
1.83
Al-Ittihad FC xG
5.14
19%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
16%
6.23
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
3%
32.03
22%
4.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 11.3 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.83 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Baten's recent record stands at 8W 11D 23L from 42 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 9D 6L across 42 games — 2.14 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Baten heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Baten have managed 6W 6D 8L from 20 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record stands at 12W 6D 2L across 20 trips, a 2.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Baten are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.88 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 8W 11D 23L in their last 42 games (0.83 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 27W 9D 6L in their last 42 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.20 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Al Baten or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Baten have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Baten have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Baten
1
Draws
3
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al Baten) and 55% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Baten have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Baten's games and 65% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Baten's matches and 55% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Baten and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ittihad FC edge out Al Baten 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Baten 1-2 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 0.96 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.83 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.91 / defence 1.41 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.11 / defence 0.76, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 19% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 58%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 55%, Al-Ittihad FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.