Al Baten 0-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Baten at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Baten vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Batin FC Stadium plays host to Al Baten versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 15 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Baten have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Baten's home record at Al-Batin FC Stadium: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fayha have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Al Baten's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al Baten 1W, Al-Fayha 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Baten half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 45% versus Al-Fayha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 52% | Al-Fayha 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.70 xG and Al-Fayha 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 1.060 / defence 1.093 | Al-Fayha attack 0.977 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.223. Data: 56 Al Baten games / 56 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 47% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fayha 3.33. Al Baten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Baten as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Baten if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Baten 50% | Al-Fayha 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 15 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 47% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Baten 1.70 / Al-Fayha 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 1.060 / def 1.093 | Al-Fayha attack 0.977 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Al Baten (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Al-Fayha xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 15 May 2023 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Fayha?
Al Baten 0 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 47% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Baten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Fayha?
Record (3 meetings): Al Baten 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Fayha in?
Al Baten (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Baten's attack at 1.06x the league average against Al-Fayha's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.98x) against Al Baten's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Baten Win
47%
2.14
24%
4.21
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Al Baten xG
Total xG
3.00
1.31
Al-Fayha xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
5%
18.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.31 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Baten come into this having played 56 games, going 13W 12D 31L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.12 PPG from 56 outings (15W 18D 23L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Al Baten against 1.12 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Baten's home form reads 11W 6D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Al Baten are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.75 points per game from 28 outings (4W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Baten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Baten are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 0.89 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 13W 12D 31L in their last 56 games (0.91 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 15W 18D 23L in their last 56 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Baten's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.39 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Al Baten or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Baten have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Baten have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
2
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Fayha?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2023, when Al Baten 0-0 Al-Fayha.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 46%, Al-Fayha 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al Baten) and 39% (Al-Fayha).
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al Baten have failed to score in 29% of games; Al-Fayha in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Al Baten's recent matches and 57% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al Baten's recent games and 39% of Al-Fayha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Baten's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Baten and Al-Fayha finished level at 0-0 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.70 xG and Al-Fayha 1.31 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Baten fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Al-Fayha landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 1.06 / defence 1.09 against Al-Fayha attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 47% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 30%, with Al Baten to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 52%, Al-Fayha 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Baten 0.91 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Baten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.