Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-3 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ahli Jeddah versus Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Thursday 23 June 2022 at 19:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Raed (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Raed have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favour (1.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W, Al-Raed 1W, 0D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Al-Raed winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 68% versus Al-Raed 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 36% | Al-Raed 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.61 xG and Al-Raed 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.048 / defence 1.227 | Al-Raed attack 0.824 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.127 / away 1.285. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 28 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 45% | Draw 24% | Al-Raed 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Raed 3.23. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 80% | Al-Raed 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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