Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-0 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ahli Jeddah versus Al Kholood in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at King Abdullah Sports City, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Al Kholood have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Kholood's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Al-Ahli Jeddah's favour (2.20 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al Kholood in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W, Al Kholood 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al Kholood — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 48% versus Al Kholood 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% | Al Kholood 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.64 xG and Al Kholood 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.564 / defence 0.718 | Al Kholood attack 0.951 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.410. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.564 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 66 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 66 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 72% | Draw 17% | Al Kholood 11%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Al Kholood 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% | Al Kholood 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 72% | Draw 17% | Al Kholood 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.64 / Al Kholood 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.564 / def 0.718 | Al Kholood attack 0.951 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al Kholood xG
58%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3 - 0 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 72% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.56) and Al Kholood's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 2.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (0.95x) against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
72%
1.38
17%
5.88
11%
9.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.61
0.96
Al Kholood xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.88
17%
Draw
9.44
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
7%
14.07
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
1%
132.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.96 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 44W 10D 12L from 66 games, a 2.15 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Al Kholood, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 36L across 66 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Kholood heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 24W 6D 3L from 33 games — 2.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Kholood's away record stands at 10W 4D 19L across 33 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.23 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
Al Kholood
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 44W 10D 12L in their last 66 games (2.15 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 21W 9D 36L in their last 66 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.36 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Kholood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al Kholood in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since January 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ahli Jeddah won 4-1 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
0
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al Kholood have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Al Kholood 3-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 61%, Al Kholood 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 64% for Al Kholood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al Kholood in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 61% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 64% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ahli Jeddah run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Kholood 3-0 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.64 xG and Al Kholood 0.96 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Kholood landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.56 / defence 0.72 against Al Kholood attack 0.95 / defence 1.11, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 72% | Draw 17% | Al Kholood 11%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 52%, Al Kholood 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Kholood's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.