Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al Khaleej Saihat travel to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Friday 29 December 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium: 6W 3D 0L from 9 Pro League appearances (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.44 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 9 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
Al Khaleej Saihat — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, Al Khaleej Saihat 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2023, ended 3–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 61%; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 44% versus Al Khaleej Saihat 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 67% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.36 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.858 / defence 0.739 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.867 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.405. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 18 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 48 Al Khaleej Saihat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Al Khaleej Saihat 4.17. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 33% | Al Khaleej Saihat 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.36 / Al Khaleej Saihat 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.858 / def 0.739 | Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.867 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.528 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 29 December 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 1 - 0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 47% chance of winning, Al Khaleej Saihat a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 1W | Draws 0 | Al Khaleej Saihat 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (0.86) and Al Khaleej Saihat's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Khaleej Saihat's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.52
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.26
0.90
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 0.90 for Al Khaleej Saihat, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah come into this having played 18 games, going 11W 4D 3L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Khaleej Saihat sit at 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home form reads 6W 3D 0L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Khaleej Saihat have taken 1.11 points per game from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Al Khaleej Saihat are on 1.28 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat in 61%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 11W 4D 3L in their last 18 games (2.06 PPG), while Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 6W 4D 8L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Khaleej Saihat away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.33 PPG; Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Khaleej Saihat been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Al Khaleej Saihat in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 20 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Ahli Jeddah have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2024, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Khaleej Saihat specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Ahli Jeddah
1
Draws
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 5, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 1-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 33%, Al Khaleej Saihat 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al-Ahli Jeddah) and 44% (Al Khaleej Saihat).
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Khaleej Saihat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Khaleej Saihat?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 56% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Khaleej Saihat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent games and 44% of Al Khaleej Saihat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Khaleej Saihat tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Al Khaleej Saihat in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-0 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.36 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 0.90 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.86 / defence 0.74 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.87 / defence 1.04, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 47% | Draw 28% | Al Khaleej Saihat 24%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 67%, Al Khaleej Saihat 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.