Al-Adalah 0-5 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Al-Nassr travel to Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Adalah. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 4 April 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Adalah — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Adalah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Adalah have posted 3W 2D 5L at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Nassr are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al-Adalah, 1 for Al-Nassr and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2022, ended 1–4 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Adalah trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Adalah 48% versus Al-Nassr 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Adalah 52% | Al-Nassr 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Adalah 0.72 xG and Al-Nassr 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Adalah attack 0.771 / defence 1.244 | Al-Nassr attack 1.277 / defence 0.668. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.326. Al-Adalah's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.668 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — the away xG of 2.11 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Al-Adalah games / 51 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Adalah 11% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 69%. Fair-value odds: Al-Adalah 9.09 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Nassr 1.45. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al-Adalah 40% | Al-Nassr 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Adalah 11% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Adalah 0.72 / Al-Nassr 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Adalah attack 0.771 / def 1.244 | Al-Nassr attack 1.277 / def 0.668 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Al-Adalah xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Al-Nassr xG
46%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 4 April 2023 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Adalah 0 - 5 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Adalah a 11% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 69% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Adalah and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al-Nassr?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Adalah 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 1W.
What form are Al-Adalah and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Adalah (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Adalah's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Al-Nassr's defensive record (0.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.72. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Adalah's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
11%
9.01
20%
5.01
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Al-Adalah xG
Total xG
2.83
2.11
Al-Nassr xG
9.01
11%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
12%
8.22
49%
2.06
Win to Nil
1%
74.01
33%
2.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Al-Adalah and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Al-Adalah and 2.11 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Adalah's recent record stands at 4W 5D 12L from 21 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Adalah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr, meanwhile, have gone 15W 4D 2L across 21 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Adalah heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Adalah have managed 3W 2D 5L from 10 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Nassr's away record stands at 6W 2D 2L across 10 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Adalah are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.10 scored and 0.57 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Adalah
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Adalah and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Adalah have gone 4W 5D 12L in their last 21 games (0.81 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 15W 4D 2L in their last 21 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Adalah at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Adalah at home: 1.10 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Adalah or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Adalah have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Adalah and Al-Nassr runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al-Adalah
0
Draws
2
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Adalah and Al-Nassr?
From 2 meetings on record, Al-Adalah have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Adalah and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2023, when Al-Adalah 0-5 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Adalah and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Adalah 40% BTTS, Al-Nassr 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Adalah) and 60% (Al-Nassr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr in 60%; Al-Adalah have failed to score in 50% of games; Al-Nassr in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Adalah home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Adalah play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Al-Adalah's recent matches and 20% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Adalah vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Al-Adalah's matches and 60% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al-Adalah and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Adalah have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Al-Adalah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Adalah 0-5 at Prince Abdullah bin Jalawi Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Adalah 0.72 xG and Al-Nassr 2.11 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.11 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Adalah attack 0.77 / defence 1.24 against Al-Nassr attack 1.28 / defence 0.67, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Adalah 11% | Draw 20% | Al-Nassr 69%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Adalah 52%, Al-Nassr 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Adalah's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.