Abha 2-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Abha versus Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 27 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Abha have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Abha haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Abha's home record at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Raed's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Raed haven't played a Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Al-Raed away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Abha against 1.10 for Al-Raed. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Abha lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2022, ended 0–1 with Al-Raed winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Abha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Raed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 50% versus Al-Raed 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 40% | Al-Raed 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.17 xG and Al-Raed 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.916 / defence 0.894 | Al-Raed attack 1.059 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.302. Data: 30 Abha games / 30 Al-Raed games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Abha 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Raed 38%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Raed 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Abha 30% | Al-Raed 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Raed 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Abha 1.17 / Al-Raed 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.916 / def 0.894 | Al-Raed attack 1.059 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Raed xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Raed kick off?
Abha vs Al-Raed kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Raed?
Abha 2 - 1 Al-Raed.
Where is Abha vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Raed part of?
Abha vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 35% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Abha and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Raed?
Record (2 meetings): Abha 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Abha and Al-Raed in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Abha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Abha's attack rating (0.92) and Al-Raed's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (1.06x) against Abha's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
35%
2.88
28%
3.62
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Abha xG
Total xG
2.40
1.23
Al-Raed xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
12%
8.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Abha and 1.23 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Abha have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 9W 8D 13L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. Abha haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Al-Raed's form line: 10W 6D 14L from 30 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. Al-Raed haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Abha against 1.20 for Al-Raed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (7W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 3W 4D 8L from 15 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Abha are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Pre-Season
Al-Raed
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 10W 6D 14L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Raed away?
Abha's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.73 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Abha have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Abha
0
Draws
3
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Raed?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 3, Al-Raed have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2023, when Al-Raed 4-3 Abha.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 53%, Al-Raed 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Abha) and 67% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Abha keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Raed in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Abha's recent matches and 53% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Abha vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Abha's recent games and 67% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Abha defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al-Raed 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.17 xG and Al-Raed 1.23 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Abha beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Al-Raed attack 1.06 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 35% | Draw 28% | Al-Raed 38%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Abha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 40%, Al-Raed 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.17 PPG, Al-Raed 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock. Abha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.