Abha 0-4 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Abha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022, 12:05 UTC.
Form Guide
Abha — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 2L across 9 games at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this term (1.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC away from home this season: 5W 1D 1L from 7 away games — 2.29 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Abha register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 71% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Abha, 1 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–6 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Abha in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 53% versus Al-Ittihad FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 35% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.21 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.967 / defence 0.992 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.163 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.118. Data: 18 Abha games / 17 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 33% | Draw 31% | Al-Ittihad FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Abha 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Abha 67% | Al-Ittihad FC 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 12:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 33% | Draw 31% | Al-Ittihad FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Abha 1.21 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.967 / def 0.992 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.163 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al-Ittihad FC xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 12:05 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Abha 0 - 4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 33% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Abha and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (1 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Abha and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Abha (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Abha's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al-Ittihad FC's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
33%
3.05
31%
3.27
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Abha xG
Total xG
2.50
1.29
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
11%
9.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Abha and 1.29 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Abha come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 4D 7L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.41 PPG from 17 outings (13W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Abha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Abha's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.29 points per game from 7 outings (5W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 13W 2D 2L in their last 17 (2.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.86 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2021, when Al-Ittihad FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Abha's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Abha
0
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Abha 3-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 57%, Al-Ittihad FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Abha) and 57% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Abha keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Ittihad FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Abha's games and 71% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Abha's recent games and 57% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Abha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Abha 0-4 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.21 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Abha fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.29 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.97 / defence 0.99 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.16 / defence 1.14, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 33% | Draw 31% | Al-Ittihad FC 37%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 35%, Al-Ittihad FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.29. Form held, and they took the win. Abha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.