Abha 1-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 41%, yet in-form Al-Hilal Saudi FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Abha welcome Al-Hilal Saudi FC to Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Abha have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Abha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Abha at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season: 3W 1D 2L from 6 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 5W 4D 0L from 9 Pro League matches — 2.11 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 0L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.11 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.11 PPG ahead (2.11 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 83% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Abha trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 44% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 44% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.41 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 1.097 / defence 1.269 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.961 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.026. Data: 12 Abha games / 9 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Abha 41% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Abha at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Hilal Saudi FC (2.11 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Abha 83% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 41% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Abha 1.41 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 1.097 / def 1.269 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.961 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Abha (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Abha 1 - 1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 41% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Abha (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 5W-4D-0L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Abha's attack rating (1.10) and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.85
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Abha xG
Total xG
2.66
1.25
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
8%
12.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Abha and 1.25 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Abha have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 0D 6L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Abha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's form line: 5W 4D 0L from 9 games, 2.11 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Abha.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.50 PPG from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's season.
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 3W 0D 6L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 4D 0L in their last 9 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Abha's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Abha or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Abha's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Abha
1
Draws
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 7-0 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Abha at 75%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Abha and 50% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Abha's games and 100% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Abha's matches and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Abha have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Abha and Al-Hilal Saudi FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.41 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 1.10 / defence 1.27 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 12/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 41% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 33%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 44%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.