Abha 2-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Abha vs Al-Fayha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al-Fayha at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 28 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Abha — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Abha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Abha have posted 5W 2D 3L at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Abha are significantly better at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Abha at 0.90 PPG versus Al-Fayha's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Abha register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Fayha in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Abha have won 0, Al-Fayha 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Al-Fayha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Abha in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 54% versus Al-Fayha 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 64% | Al-Fayha 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.13 xG and Al-Fayha 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 1.015 / defence 0.980 | Al-Fayha attack 0.883 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.446. Data: 33 Abha games / 33 Al-Fayha games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Abha 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 39%. Fair-value odds: Abha 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Fayha 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Abha 60% | Al-Fayha 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 28 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Abha 1.13 / Al-Fayha 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 1.015 / def 0.980 | Al-Fayha attack 0.883 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Al-Fayha xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Abha vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Abha vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 28 August 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Abha 2 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Abha vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al-Fayha part of?
Abha vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 33% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Abha and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Abha vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Fayha?
Record (4 meetings): Abha 0W | Draws 3 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Abha and Al-Fayha in?
Abha (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Abha's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
33%
3.02
28%
3.57
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Abha xG
Total xG
2.38
1.25
Al-Fayha xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Abha and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Abha and 1.25 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Abha have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 11W 3D 19L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Abha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha's form line: 9W 11D 13L from 33 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.09 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Abha have posted 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (7W 3D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Fayha have gone 4W 5D 7L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.06 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Abha and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 11W 3D 19L in their last 33 games (1.09 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 9W 11D 13L in their last 33 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al-Fayha away?
Abha's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Abha and Al-Fayha runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Abha's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Abha
3
Draws
2
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al-Fayha?
From 6 meetings on record, Abha have won 1, Al-Fayha have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2024, when Al-Fayha 3-2 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 62%, Al-Fayha 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Abha) and 44% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Abha play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Abha's games and 56% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Abha vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Abha's matches and 44% of Al-Fayha's.
Shock result as Abha defy the odds to beat Al-Fayha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al-Fayha 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.13 xG and Al-Fayha 1.25 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Abha beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Al-Fayha attack 0.88 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Abha 33% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 39%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Abha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 64%, Al-Fayha 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.09 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.