Ural 0-4 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs Zenit encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ekaterinburg Arena plays host to Ural versus Zenit in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 28 August 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ural have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ural have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ural at Ekaterinburg Arena this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Zenit (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Zenit have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zenit's away record: 3W 6D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Zenit arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ural, 1 for Zenit and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with Zenit winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ural goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Zenit goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 36% versus Zenit 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 36% | Zenit 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 0.80 xG and Zenit 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.695 / defence 1.113 | Zenit attack 0.839 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.287. Ural's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zenit's defence strength of 0.727 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Ural games / 36 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 23% | Draw 34% | Zenit 43%. Fair-value odds: Ural 4.35 | Draw 2.94 | Zenit 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zenit if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ural 40% | Zenit 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 23% | Draw 34% | Zenit 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Ural 0.80 / Zenit 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.695 / def 1.113 | Zenit attack 0.839 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Zenit (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Zenit xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Zenit kick off?
Ural vs Zenit kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Zenit?
Ural 0 - 4 Zenit.
Where is Ural vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Zenit part of?
Ural vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 23% chance of winning, Zenit a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ural and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Zenit?
Record (2 meetings): Ural 0W | Draws 1 | Zenit 1W.
What form are Ural and Zenit in?
Ural (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Zenit (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ural's attack rating (0.69) and Zenit's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zenit's attack (0.84x) against Ural's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
23%
4.41
34%
2.95
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Ural xG
Total xG
2.00
1.20
Zenit xG
4.41
23%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
19%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 16.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ural and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Ural and 1.20 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ural's recent record stands at 8W 10D 18L from 36 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ural, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 3L across 36 games — 2.19 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zenit, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 1.25 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ural heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ural have managed 3W 6D 8L from 17 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zenit's away record stands at 6W 9D 2L across 17 trips, a 1.59 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zenit's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ural are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.19 scored and 0.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Early Season
Zenit
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Zenit in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 8W 10D 18L in their last 36 games (0.94 PPG), while Zenit have gone 23W 10D 3L in their last 36 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 0.88 PPG; Zenit away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Ural or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ural have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Zenit in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Zenit go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zenit won 0-4 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ural have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zenit — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ural
1
Draws
5
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Zenit?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 0, Zenit have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Ural 1-4 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ural see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Zenit see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ural 35%, Zenit 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Ural and 29% for Zenit.
On the defensive side: Ural have failed to score in 53% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Zenit?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Ural's recent matches and 65% of Zenit's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ural vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Ural's recent games and 29% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Zenit run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Ural.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Ural 0-4 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 0.80 xG and Zenit 1.20 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Ural fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Zenit outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.69 / defence 1.11 against Zenit attack 0.84 / defence 0.73, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 23% | Draw 34% | Zenit 43%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 36%, Zenit 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zenit's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Ural (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.