Ural 0-0 Zenit – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zenit at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ural vs Zenit encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ekaterinburg Arena plays host to Ural versus Zenit in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ural have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural at Ekaterinburg Arena this season: 1W 3D 3L from 7 home games — 0.86 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Zenit (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit's away record: 3W 2D 1L from 6 road trips in Premier League this season (1.83 PPG). They are averaging 2.17 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Zenit arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Ural goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 69% of games.
Zenit goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ural 15% versus Zenit 92%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ural 15% | Zenit 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ural 0.90 xG and Zenit 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ural attack 0.633 / defence 1.023 | Zenit attack 1.174 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.077. Ural's attack strength of 0.633 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zenit bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Ural's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Ural games / 13 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ural 26% | Draw 28% | Zenit 46%. Fair-value odds: Ural 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Zenit 2.17. Zenit hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zenit as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zenit if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ural 29% | Zenit 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ural vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ekaterinburg Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ural 26% | Draw 28% | Zenit 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Ural 0.90 / Zenit 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Ural attack 0.633 / def 1.023 | Zenit attack 1.174 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Zenit (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Ural xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Zenit xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ural vs Zenit kick off?
Ural vs Zenit kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What was the final score in Ural vs Zenit?
Ural 0 - 0 Zenit.
Where is Ural vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Ekaterinburg Arena.
What competition is Ural vs Zenit part of?
Ural vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ural vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Ural a 26% chance of winning, Zenit a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ural vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ural and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Ural vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Zenit?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ural and Zenit in?
Ural (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Zenit (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ural's attack rating (0.63) and Zenit's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Zenit's attack (1.17x) against Ural's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
26%
3.86
28%
3.52
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Ural xG
Total xG
2.19
1.29
Zenit xG
3.86
26%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
7%
14.09
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 14.5 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ural vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ural and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Ural and 1.29 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Ural vs Zenit?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ural's recent record stands at 2W 4D 7L from 13 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 9W 2D 2L across 13 games — 2.23 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 1.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ural heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ural have managed 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zenit's away record stands at 3W 2D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ural are averaging 0.38 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.62 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ural have seen both teams score in 15% of their recent games; Zenit in 92%.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ural
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ural and Zenit in coming into this match?
Ural have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Zenit have gone 9W 2D 2L in their last 13 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ural at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ural at home: 1.00 PPG; Zenit away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Ural or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ural have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Zenit in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Zenit go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zenit won 0-4 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ural have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Zenit — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ural
1
Draws
5
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ural and Zenit?
From 6 meetings on record, Ural have won 0, Zenit have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ural and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Ural 1-4 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Ural and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ural see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Ural, 100% for Zenit — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Ural and 67% for Zenit.
On the defensive side: Ural keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ural have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ural home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ural play Zenit?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Ural's games and 100% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ural vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Ural's recent games and 67% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ural and Zenit tend to score early?
Ural have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Zenit in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ural's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ural and Zenit finished level at 0-0 at Ekaterinburg Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ural 0.90 xG and Zenit 1.29 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ural fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Zenit landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ural attack 0.63 / defence 1.02 against Zenit attack 1.17 / defence 1.22, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ural 26% | Draw 28% | Zenit 46%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ural 15%, Zenit 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ural's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 15% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 69% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zenit's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 92% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.