Spartak Moscow 2-1 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Spartak Moscow at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Spartak Moscow welcome Akhmat to Otkrytiye Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Otkrytiye Arena, Spartak Moscow have gone 3W 3D 2L this season (8 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Akhmat — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 5L across 8 road games this term (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spartak Moscow 1.30 PPG, Akhmat 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spartak Moscow register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Akhmat in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Spartak Moscow trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Akhmat trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spartak Moscow 62% versus Akhmat 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spartak Moscow 38% | Akhmat 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spartak Moscow 1.36 xG and Akhmat 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spartak Moscow attack 0.956 / defence 1.148 | Akhmat attack 0.789 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.136. Data: 16 Spartak Moscow games / 16 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 43% | Draw 29% | Akhmat 27%. Fair-value odds: Spartak Moscow 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Akhmat 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Spartak Moscow as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Spartak Moscow 75% | Akhmat 62% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Otkrytiye Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spartak Moscow 43% | Draw 29% | Akhmat 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Spartak Moscow 1.36 / Akhmat 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Spartak Moscow attack 0.956 / def 1.148 | Akhmat attack 0.789 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Spartak Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Akhmat xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat kick off?
Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Otkrytiye Arena.
What was the final score in Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Spartak Moscow 2 - 1 Akhmat.
Where is Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Otkrytiye Arena.
What competition is Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat part of?
Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives Spartak Moscow a 43% chance of winning, Akhmat a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Spartak Moscow and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Akhmat?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Spartak Moscow and Akhmat in?
Spartak Moscow (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Akhmat (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spartak Moscow's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Akhmat's attack versus Spartak Moscow's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
43%
2.30
29%
3.40
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Spartak Moscow xG
Total xG
2.39
1.03
Akhmat xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
7%
14.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Spartak Moscow and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Spartak Moscow and 1.03 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spartak Moscow's recent record stands at 5W 5D 6L from 16 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 8W 0D 8L across 16 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spartak Moscow on 1.25 PPG, Akhmat on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Spartak Moscow have managed 3W 3D 2L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akhmat's away record stands at 3W 0D 5L across 8 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Spartak Moscow are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.19 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spartak Moscow
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spartak Moscow and Akhmat in coming into this match?
Spartak Moscow have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 8W 0D 8L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spartak Moscow at home or Akhmat away?
Spartak Moscow's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spartak Moscow at home: 1.50 PPG; Akhmat away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Spartak Moscow have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Spartak Moscow's record when hosting Akhmat specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Spartak Moscow
5
Draws
1
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Moscow and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, Spartak Moscow have won 4, Akhmat have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Spartak Moscow and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Akhmat 1-2 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Spartak Moscow and Akhmat?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spartak Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Spartak Moscow at 75%, Akhmat at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Spartak Moscow) and 62% (Akhmat). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Akhmat in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spartak Moscow home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spartak Moscow play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Spartak Moscow's games and 62% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spartak Moscow vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Spartak Moscow's matches and 62% of Akhmat's.
Do Spartak Moscow and Akhmat tend to score early?
Spartak Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spartak Moscow edge out Akhmat 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Akhmat 2-1 at Otkrytiye Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spartak Moscow 1.36 xG and Akhmat 1.03 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spartak Moscow attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Akhmat attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spartak Moscow 43% | Draw 29% | Akhmat 27%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spartak Moscow 38%, Akhmat 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Akhmat's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spartak Moscow 1.25 PPG, Akhmat 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.