Ska-khabarovsk 1-0 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ska-khabarovsk at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ska-khabarovsk vs Khimki fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Relegation Round sees Khimki travel to Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina to take on Ska-khabarovsk. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 25 May 2022, 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khimki stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Khimki's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ska-khabarovsk 1.18 xG and Khimki 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Khimki attack 0.749 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.216. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Ska-khabarovsk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Ska-khabarovsk games / 30 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ska-khabarovsk 39% | Draw 29% | Khimki 32%. Fair-value odds: Ska-khabarovsk 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Khimki 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ska-khabarovsk are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ska-khabarovsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ska-khabarovsk vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 May 2022, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ska-khabarovsk 39% | Draw 29% | Khimki 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Ska-khabarovsk 1.18 / Khimki 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Khimki attack 0.749 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Ska-khabarovsk (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Ska-khabarovsk xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Khimki xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ska-khabarovsk vs Khimki kick off?
Ska-khabarovsk vs Khimki kicked off at 10:30 on Wednesday 25 May 2022 at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina.
What was the final score in Ska-khabarovsk vs Khimki?
Ska-khabarovsk 1 - 0 Khimki.
Where is Ska-khabarovsk vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina.
What competition is Ska-khabarovsk vs Khimki part of?
Ska-khabarovsk vs Khimki is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Ska-khabarovsk vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Ska-khabarovsk a 39% chance of winning, Khimki a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ska-khabarovsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ska-khabarovsk vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ska-khabarovsk and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Ska-khabarovsk vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ska-khabarovsk and Khimki?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ska-khabarovsk and Khimki in?
Khimki (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Khimki away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ska-khabarovsk's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Khimki's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Ska-khabarovsk's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ska-khabarovsk Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.47
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Ska-khabarovsk xG
Total xG
2.23
1.05
Khimki xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
14%
7.32
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ska-khabarovsk vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ska-khabarovsk and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Ska-khabarovsk and 1.05 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ska-khabarovsk vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ska-khabarovsk
Pre-Season
Khimki
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ska-khabarovsk
0
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ska-khabarovsk and Khimki?
From 2 meetings on record, Ska-khabarovsk have won 1, Khimki have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ska-khabarovsk and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2022, when Khimki 3-0 Ska-khabarovsk.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ska-khabarovsk home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Ska-khabarovsk edge out Khimki 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ska-khabarovsk beat Khimki 1-0 at Stadion imeni V.I. Lenina, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ska-khabarovsk 1.18 xG and Khimki 1.05 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Khimki landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ska-khabarovsk attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Khimki attack 0.75 / defence 1.24, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ska-khabarovsk 39% | Draw 29% | Khimki 32%, with Ska-khabarovsk to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.