Nizhny Novgorod 0-3 Zenit – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Zenit at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Nizhny Novgorod welcome Zenit to Stadion Nizhny Novgorod. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nizhny Novgorod at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zenit stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Zenit, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zenit's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Zenit — 1.40 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, Zenit 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Nizhny Novgorod winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nizhny Novgorod in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Zenit in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 57% versus Zenit 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 50% | Zenit 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 0.94 xG and Zenit 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.915 / defence 1.258 | Zenit attack 1.123 / defence 0.616. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.261. Zenit's defence strength of 0.616 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Nizhny Novgorod games / 42 Zenit games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 17% | Draw 28% | Zenit 55%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Zenit 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Zenit (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zenit at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Nizhny Novgorod 50% | Zenit 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 17% | Draw 28% | Zenit 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Nizhny Novgorod 0.94 / Zenit 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.915 / def 1.258 | Zenit attack 1.123 / def 0.616 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Zenit (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Zenit xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit?
Nizhny Novgorod 0 - 3 Zenit.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 17% chance of winning, Zenit a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zenit the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and Zenit will score (BTTS).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Zenit?
Record (2 meetings): Nizhny Novgorod 1W | Draws 0 | Zenit 1W.
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Zenit in?
Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Zenit (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nizhny Novgorod's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Zenit's defensive record (0.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Zenit's attack versus Nizhny Novgorod's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zenit Win
17%
5.77
28%
3.60
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.72
1.78
Zenit xG
5.77
17%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
17%
5.94
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
3%
34.29
21%
4.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.7 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and Zenit expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.78 for Zenit, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nizhny Novgorod's recent record stands at 11W 13D 18L from 42 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zenit, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 3L across 42 games — 2.26 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Zenit is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zenit by 1.16 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nizhny Novgorod heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nizhny Novgorod have managed 5W 5D 11L from 21 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zenit's away record stands at 9W 10D 2L across 21 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zenit's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zenit come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Zenit are on 2.36 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zenit in 62%.
Defensively: Zenit in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Zenit
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Zenit in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Zenit have gone 28W 11D 3L in their last 42 (2.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or Zenit away?
Zenit's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 0.95 PPG; Zenit away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or Zenit been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Zenit in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nizhny Novgorod and Zenit runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Zenit have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Nov 2021, when Zenit won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nizhny Novgorod's record when hosting Zenit specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nizhny Novgorod
0
Draws
9
Zenit
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Zenit?
From 10 meetings on record, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, Zenit have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and Zenit last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Nizhny Novgorod 0-2 Zenit.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and Zenit?
Zenit have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Zenit are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 57%, Zenit 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 33% (Zenit).
On the defensive side: Zenit in 33%; Nizhny Novgorod have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / Zenit away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nizhny Novgorod play Zenit?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Nizhny Novgorod's games and 62% of Zenit's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nizhny Novgorod vs Zenit usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 33% of Zenit's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and Zenit tend to score early?
Nizhny Novgorod have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Zenit in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zenit run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nizhny Novgorod.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zenit beat Nizhny Novgorod 0-3 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 0.94 xG and Zenit 1.78 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nizhny Novgorod fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Zenit outscored their 1.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.92 / defence 1.26 against Zenit attack 1.12 / defence 0.62, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 17% | Draw 28% | Zenit 55%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 50%, Zenit 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zenit's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.