Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Nizhny Novgorod welcome Ural to Stadion Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 2 December 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Nizhny Novgorod's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Nizhny Novgorod are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ural stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Ural have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Nizhny Novgorod carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Nizhny Novgorod's 20% BTTS rate and Ural's 30% (from Nizhny Novgorod's last 10 home games and Ural's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Nizhny Novgorod, 0 for Ural and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended Nizhny Novgorod 0–0 Ural — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Nizhny Novgorod in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Ural in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nizhny Novgorod 39% versus Ural 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nizhny Novgorod 46% | Ural 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nizhny Novgorod 1.53 xG and Ural 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.946 / defence 0.736 | Ural attack 0.958 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.097. Nizhny Novgorod have a tight defence (rating 0.736), which is pulling Ural's projected output down. Data: built from Nizhny Novgorod's last 46 games and Ural's last 46.
Result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 54% | Draw 28% | Ural 18%. Fair-value odds: Nizhny Novgorod 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Ural 5.58. Nizhny Novgorod hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nizhny Novgorod offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 0.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nizhny Novgorod 20% (last 10 home games) | Ural 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion Nizhny Novgorod • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nizhny Novgorod 54% | Draw 28% | Ural 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Nizhny Novgorod 1.53 / Ural 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.946 / def 0.736 | Ural attack 0.958 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Nizhny Novgorod (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Ural xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural FAQs
What time does Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural kick off?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What was the final score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural?
Nizhny Novgorod 1 - 0 Ural.
Where is Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod.
What competition is Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural part of?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural is a Premier League fixture (matchday 17) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Nizhny Novgorod a 54% chance of winning, Ural a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nizhny Novgorod the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Nizhny Novgorod and Ural will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nizhny Novgorod's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Ural's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Ural's attack versus Nizhny Novgorod's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nizhny Novgorod's last 46 games and Ural's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nizhny Novgorod Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.57
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Nizhny Novgorod xG
Total xG
2.30
0.77
Ural xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
4%
25.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Nizhny Novgorod and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 0.77 for Ural, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Nizhny Novgorod have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 15W 9D 22L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Ural's form line: 15W 10D 21L from 46 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nizhny Novgorod on 1.17 PPG, Ural on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nizhny Novgorod have posted 1.68 PPG from their last 22 home games (11W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Nizhny Novgorod are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ural have gone 6W 6D 10L from their last 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nizhny Novgorod come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nizhny Novgorod are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 1.11 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Ural
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod (Home) vs Ural (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural Form FAQs
What form are Nizhny Novgorod and Ural in coming into this match?
Nizhny Novgorod have gone 15W 9D 22L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Ural have gone 15W 10D 21L in their last 46 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nizhny Novgorod at home or Ural away?
Nizhny Novgorod's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nizhny Novgorod at home: 1.68 PPG; Ural away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Nizhny Novgorod or Ural been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nizhny Novgorod have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ural in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nizhny Novgorod's record when hosting Ural specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Nizhny Novgorod
3
Draws
0
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nizhny Novgorod and Ural?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Nizhny Novgorod have won 3, Ural have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nizhny Novgorod and Ural last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 December 2023: Nizhny Novgorod 1-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Nizhny Novgorod and Ural?
Nizhny Novgorod have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nizhny Novgorod 36%, Ural 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nizhny Novgorod) and 54% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Nizhny Novgorod keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Nizhny Novgorod have failed to score in 36% of games; Ural in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nizhny Novgorod home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nizhny Novgorod vs Ural Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nizhny Novgorod and Ural matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 41% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nizhny Novgorod and Ural matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent games and 54% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nizhny Novgorod and Ural matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Nizhny Novgorod's recent matches and 68% of Ural's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nizhny Novgorod edge out Ural 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nizhny Novgorod beat Ural 1-0 at Stadion Nizhny Novgorod, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nizhny Novgorod 1.53 xG and Ural 0.77 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.95 / defence 0.74 against Ural attack 0.96 / defence 1.12, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nizhny Novgorod 54% | Draw 28% | Ural 18%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nizhny Novgorod 46%, Ural 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ural's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nizhny Novgorod 1.17 PPG, Ural 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nizhny Novgorod win broke the near-deadlock. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Ural (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.