Krylia Sovetov 1-1 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Krylia Sovetov at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Krylia Sovetov vs Ural encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov host Ural at Solidarnost Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov at Solidarnost Arena this season: 4W 0D 2L from 6 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Solidarnost Arena.
Ural — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ural away from home this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Krylia Sovetov are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ural in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 71% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Krylia Sovetov 50% | Ural 14%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Krylia Sovetov 50% | Ural 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.49 xG and Ural 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.109 / defence 0.995 | Ural attack 0.533 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.052. Data: 14 Krylia Sovetov games / 14 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 60% | Draw 26% | Ural 14%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Ural 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Krylia Sovetov (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Ural's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 33% | Ural 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 60% | Draw 26% | Ural 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 33% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.49 / Ural 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.109 / def 0.995 | Ural attack 0.533 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.052 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Ural xG
33%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Ural kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Ural kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Ural?
Krylia Sovetov 1 - 1 Ural.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Ural part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Ural is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 60% chance of winning, Ural a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Ural?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Ural in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Ural (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.11x the league average against Ural's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ural's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
60%
1.66
26%
3.84
14%
7.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.05
0.56
Ural xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
7.26
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
57%
1.75
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
34%
2.90
3%
32.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 0.56 for Ural, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Ural?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 14 games, going 7W 1D 6L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ural sit at 0.79 PPG from 14 outings (2W 5D 7L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Ural — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 4W 0D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Krylia Sovetov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Ural have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Krylia Sovetov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 0.36 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ural in 14%.
Defensively: Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Ural in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Ural in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 7W 1D 6L in their last 14 games (1.57 PPG), while Ural have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Ural away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 2.00 PPG; Ural away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Ural been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ural in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Krylia Sovetov and Ural runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Krylia Sovetov go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2023, when Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Ural specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Krylia Sovetov
1
Draws
1
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Ural?
From 6 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 4, Ural have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Ural 1-2 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Ural?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Krylia Sovetov 33% BTTS, Ural 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Krylia Sovetov and 17% for Ural.
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ural in 33%; Ural in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 0% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 17% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Ural tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ural in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Krylia Sovetov and Ural share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 15, as Krylia Sovetov and Ural drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.49 xG and Ural 0.56 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against Ural attack 0.53 / defence 1.09, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 60% | Draw 26% | Ural 14%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 50%, Ural 14%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Ural's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Ural (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.