Krylia Sovetov 5-2 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dynamo at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Krylia Sovetov host Dynamo at Solidarnost Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Krylia Sovetov have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Solidarnost Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dynamo stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Krylia Sovetov) versus 1.70 (Dynamo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Krylia Sovetov in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Dynamo in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Krylia Sovetov 52% versus Dynamo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 44% | Dynamo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.04 xG and Dynamo 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.021 / defence 1.073 | Dynamo attack 1.017 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.253. Data: 27 Krylia Sovetov games / 27 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 28% | Draw 29% | Dynamo 44%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Dynamo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 50% | Dynamo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 28% | Draw 29% | Dynamo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.04 / Dynamo 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.021 / def 1.073 | Dynamo attack 1.017 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Dynamo xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Krylia Sovetov 5 - 2 Dynamo.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 28% chance of winning, Dynamo a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Dynamo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Krylia Sovetov's attack rating (1.02) and Dynamo's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Krylia Sovetov's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
28%
3.59
29%
3.50
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.41
1.37
Dynamo xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
7%
14.09
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.37 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Krylia Sovetov come into this having played 27 games, going 11W 5D 11L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo sit at 1.93 PPG from 27 outings (16W 4D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Krylia Sovetov's home form reads 6W 3D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo have taken 2.15 points per game from 13 outings (9W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.74 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 11W 5D 11L in their last 27 games (1.41 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 16W 4D 7L in their last 27 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or Dynamo away?
Dynamo's away record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.62 PPG; Dynamo away: 2.15 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dynamo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Mar 2026, when Dynamo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Krylia Sovetov's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Krylia Sovetov
2
Draws
7
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 1, Dynamo have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Dynamo 0-0 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 46%, Dynamo 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Krylia Sovetov) and 54% (Dynamo).
On the defensive side: Krylia Sovetov keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Dynamo in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play Dynamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Krylia Sovetov's recent matches and 46% of Dynamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 54% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and Dynamo tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Krylia Sovetov run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Dynamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Krylia Sovetov beat Dynamo 5-2 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.04 xG and Dynamo 1.37 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Dynamo attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 28% | Draw 29% | Dynamo 44%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 44%, Dynamo 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with Krylia Sovetov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.