Krylia Sovetov 0-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Solidarnost Arena to face Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 8 March 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Krylia Sovetov's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Solidarnost Arena, Krylia Sovetov have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Krylia Sovetov are significantly better at Solidarnost Arena than their overall form suggests.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. CSKA Moscow are 0.50 PPG clear of Krylia Sovetov in recent Premier League fixtures (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Krylia Sovetov register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, CSKA Moscow in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, CSKA Moscow have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Krylia Sovetov's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
It is worth noting that CSKA Moscow have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Krylia Sovetov — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Krylia Sovetov 61% and CSKA Moscow 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Krylia Sovetov 59% | CSKA Moscow 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Krylia Sovetov 1.79 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.322 / defence 1.116 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.058 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 0.920. Krylia Sovetov carry an above-average attack strength of 1.322 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Krylia Sovetov games / 49 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 51% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 20%. Fair-value odds: Krylia Sovetov 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | CSKA Moscow 5.00. Krylia Sovetov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Krylia Sovetov at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form CSKA Moscow (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Krylia Sovetov 70% | CSKA Moscow 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Solidarnost Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Krylia Sovetov 51% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Krylia Sovetov 1.79 / CSKA Moscow 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Krylia Sovetov attack 1.322 / def 1.116 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.058 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.357 / away 0.920 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Krylia Sovetov xG
Expected Goals
1.09
CSKA Moscow xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Solidarnost Arena.
What was the final score in Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Krylia Sovetov 0 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Solidarnost Arena.
What competition is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Krylia Sovetov a 51% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
Record (4 meetings): Krylia Sovetov 0W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 3W.
What form are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow in?
Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Krylia Sovetov's attack at 1.32x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.06x) against Krylia Sovetov's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.43
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Krylia Sovetov xG
Total xG
2.87
1.09
CSKA Moscow xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
3%
29.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Krylia Sovetov and 1.09 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Krylia Sovetov's recent record stands at 16W 13D 20L from 49 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 24W 15D 10L across 49 games — 1.78 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Krylia Sovetov have managed 10W 9D 5L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 7W 9D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of CSKA Moscow's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Krylia Sovetov are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.80 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Krylia Sovetov have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; CSKA Moscow in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Krylia Sovetov have gone 16W 13D 20L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 24W 15D 10L in their last 49 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Krylia Sovetov at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Krylia Sovetov's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Krylia Sovetov at home: 1.62 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Krylia Sovetov or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Krylia Sovetov have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Krylia Sovetov have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Krylia Sovetov
4
Draws
6
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, CSKA Moscow have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Krylia Sovetov 58%, CSKA Moscow 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Krylia Sovetov) and 54% (CSKA Moscow).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Krylia Sovetov home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Krylia Sovetov play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Krylia Sovetov's games and 62% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Krylia Sovetov vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Krylia Sovetov's recent games and 54% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Krylia Sovetov and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Krylia Sovetov have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 0-2 at Solidarnost Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Krylia Sovetov 1.79 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.09 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov fell 1.8 short of their projected output. CSKA Moscow outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Krylia Sovetov attack 1.32 / defence 1.12 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.06 / defence 1.00, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Krylia Sovetov 51% | Draw 29% | CSKA Moscow 20%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a CSKA Moscow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Krylia Sovetov 59%, CSKA Moscow 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.