FC Krasnodar 1-4 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 2 as FC Krasnodar welcome Spartak Moscow to Stadion FK Krasnodar. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 July 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Krasnodar — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Krasnodar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion FK Krasnodar this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Spartak Moscow have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (FC Krasnodar) versus 1.30 (Spartak Moscow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Krasnodar register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Spartak Moscow in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC Krasnodar, 0 for Spartak Moscow and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 2–1 with FC Krasnodar winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Krasnodar in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Spartak Moscow in-play and half-time data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 55% versus Spartak Moscow 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 45% | Spartak Moscow 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.40 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 0.959 / defence 1.036 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.024 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.194. Data: 31 FC Krasnodar games / 31 Spartak Moscow games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 38% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Spartak Moscow 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 60% | Spartak Moscow 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 38% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.40 / Spartak Moscow 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 0.959 / def 1.036 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.024 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Spartak Moscow xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 23 July 2022 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
FC Krasnodar 1 - 4 Spartak Moscow.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 38% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow?
Record (1 meetings): FC Krasnodar 1W | Draws 0 | Spartak Moscow 0W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Krasnodar's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Spartak Moscow's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
38%
2.60
29%
3.42
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.67
1.27
Spartak Moscow xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
11%
9.22
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.27 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Krasnodar come into this having played 31 games, going 14W 9D 8L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Spartak Moscow sit at 1.26 PPG from 31 outings (10W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Krasnodar on 1.65 PPG, Spartak Moscow on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Krasnodar's home form reads 8W 4D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Spartak Moscow have taken 1.00 points per game from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.23 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Spartak Moscow in 65%.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Early Season
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 14W 9D 8L in their last 31 games (1.65 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 10W 9D 12L in their last 31 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Spartak Moscow away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 1.75 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Krasnodar have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jul 2022, when Spartak Moscow won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Krasnodar's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Krasnodar
0
Draws
4
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 6, Spartak Moscow have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Spartak Moscow 1-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Spartak Moscow see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 50%, Spartak Moscow 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (FC Krasnodar) and 38% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 56% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 38% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spartak Moscow run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Krasnodar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat FC Krasnodar 1-4 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.40 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.27 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Spartak Moscow outscored their 1.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.02 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 38% | Draw 29% | Spartak Moscow 32%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Spartak Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 45%, Spartak Moscow 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 1.65 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.