FC Krasnodar 0-3 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Krasnodar welcome Spartak Moscow to Stadion FK Krasnodar in Premier League (matchday 17). Kick-off is Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FC Krasnodar — last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L, averaging 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Spartak Moscow have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Spartak Moscow have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 2.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. FC Krasnodar's 30% BTTS rate and Spartak Moscow's 30% (from FC Krasnodar's last 10 home games and Spartak Moscow's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for FC Krasnodar, 3 for Spartak Moscow and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended FC Krasnodar 3–0 Spartak Moscow — a FC Krasnodar win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Krasnodar in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Spartak Moscow in-play and half-time data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 50% versus Spartak Moscow 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 44% | Spartak Moscow 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.57 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.370 / defence 0.644 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.003 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.277. FC Krasnodar carry an above-average attack rating of 1.370 — their 1.57 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. FC Krasnodar have a tight defence (rating 0.644), which is pulling Spartak Moscow's projected output down. Data: built from FC Krasnodar's last 46 games and Spartak Moscow's last 46.
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 52% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 17%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 1.91 | Draw 3.25 | Spartak Moscow 5.91. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (FC Krasnodar's last 10 home games and Spartak Moscow's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Krasnodar 30% (last 10 home games) | Spartak Moscow 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 52% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG FC Krasnodar 1.57 / Spartak Moscow 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.370 / def 0.644 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.003 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Spartak Moscow xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow FAQs
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
FC Krasnodar 0 - 3 Spartak Moscow.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow is a Premier League fixture (matchday 17) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 52% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Krasnodar's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Spartak Moscow's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Krasnodar's last 46 games and Spartak Moscow's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
52%
1.91
31%
3.25
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.40
0.82
Spartak Moscow xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
4%
28.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.82 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Krasnodar come into this having played 46 games, going 27W 13D 6L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Spartak Moscow sit at 1.76 PPG from 46 outings (23W 12D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Krasnodar on 2.04 PPG, Spartak Moscow on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Krasnodar's home form reads 17W 3D 2L across their last 22 home games, a 2.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.04 PPG overall — FC Krasnodar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Spartak Moscow have taken 1.27 points per game from their last 22 away games (7W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spartak Moscow's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.54 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Spartak Moscow in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
FC Krasnodar (Home) vs Spartak Moscow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Krasnodar
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow Form FAQs
What form are FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 27W 13D 6L in their last 46 games (2.04 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 23W 12D 11L in their last 46 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or Spartak Moscow away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.45 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.27 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Krasnodar have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Jul 2022, when Spartak Moscow won FC Krasnodar 1-4 Spartak Moscow.
FC Krasnodar's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FC Krasnodar
0
Draws
4
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Krasnodar have won 6, Spartak Moscow have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Spartak Moscow 1-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 41%, Spartak Moscow 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FC Krasnodar) and 36% (Spartak Moscow).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Spartak Moscow in 36%; Spartak Moscow in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Krasnodar vs Spartak Moscow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 41% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 36% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Spartak Moscow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 50% of Spartak Moscow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spartak Moscow run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC Krasnodar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat FC Krasnodar 0-3 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.57 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.82 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC Krasnodar fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.37 / defence 0.64 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.00 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 52% | Draw 31% | Spartak Moscow 17%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Spartak Moscow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 44%, Spartak Moscow 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 2.04 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spartak Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.