FC Krasnodar 0-1 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 58%, yet in-form FC Krasnodar provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Krasnodar vs Khimki fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Krasnodar host Khimki at Stadion FK Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Krasnodar — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Premier League outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FC Krasnodar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Khimki have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Khimki have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, FC Krasnodar have the edge — a 3.00 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 0.76 xG and Khimki 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 0.978 / defence 1.150 | Khimki attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.679 / away 1.646. Data: 1 FC Krasnodar games / 1 Khimki games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 18% | Draw 25% | Khimki 58%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Khimki 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Khimki (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khimki are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Krasnodar (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 18% | Draw 25% | Khimki 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG FC Krasnodar 0.76 / Khimki 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 0.978 / def 1.150 | Khimki attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.679 / away 1.646 • Poisson stance: Khimki (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Khimki xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Khimki kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Khimki kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Khimki?
FC Krasnodar 0 - 1 Khimki.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Khimki part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 18% chance of winning, Khimki a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Khimki?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Khimki in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. Khimki (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Krasnodar's attack at 0.98x the league average against Khimki's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 0-2 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
18%
5.67
25%
4.03
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.37
1.61
Khimki xG
5.67
18%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
47%
2.15
Win to Nil
4%
28.33
27%
3.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 15.0 | 12.1 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.61 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Khimki?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, FC Krasnodar have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khimki's form line: 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L. It's still early in the season for Khimki, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Krasnodar are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khimki.
The Goals Picture
FC Krasnodar are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Krasnodar have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Khimki in 100%.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Early Season
Khimki
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Khimki in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Khimki have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have FC Krasnodar or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Khimki in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Krasnodar and Khimki runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2023, when FC Krasnodar won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Krasnodar's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
FC Krasnodar
2
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 3, Khimki have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Khimki 2-2 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Khimki?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 100% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of FC Krasnodar's matches and 100% of Khimki's.
Do FC Krasnodar and Khimki tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Khimki in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khimki edge out FC Krasnodar 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki beat FC Krasnodar 0-1 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 0.76 xG and Khimki 1.61 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Khimki attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 18% | Draw 25% | Khimki 58%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 100%, Khimki 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Khimki winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Krasnodar managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khimki conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.