FC Krasnodar 1-1 FC UFA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 11 as FC Krasnodar welcome FC UFA to Stadion FK Krasnodar. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Krasnodar have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Krasnodar have posted 3W 0D 1L at Stadion FK Krasnodar — 2.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion FK Krasnodar. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at Stadion FK Krasnodar than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC UFA stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC UFA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC UFA have posted 1W 0D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
FC Krasnodar in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
FC UFA in-play and half-time data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 40% versus FC UFA 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 50% | FC UFA 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.67 xG and FC UFA 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.193 / defence 1.001 | FC UFA attack 0.724 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.041 / away 1.162. FC UFA bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing FC Krasnodar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 FC Krasnodar games / 10 FC UFA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 57% | Draw 24% | FC UFA 19%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | FC UFA 5.26. The model has a clear lean to FC Krasnodar (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 25% | FC UFA 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 57% | Draw 24% | FC UFA 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.67 / FC UFA 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.193 / def 1.001 | FC UFA attack 0.724 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.041 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
0.84
FC UFA xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA?
FC Krasnodar 1 - 1 FC UFA.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA part of?
FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 57% chance of winning, FC UFA a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Krasnodar and FC UFA will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and FC UFA?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Krasnodar and FC UFA in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. FC UFA (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC Krasnodar's attack at 1.19x the league average against FC UFA's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC UFA's attack versus FC Krasnodar's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.14
19%
5.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.51
0.84
FC UFA xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.33
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
4%
28.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and FC UFA expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.84 for FC UFA, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, FC Krasnodar have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 5W 2D 3L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Krasnodar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC UFA's form line: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for FC UFA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Krasnodar are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC UFA.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Krasnodar have posted 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — FC Krasnodar are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC UFA have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; FC UFA are on 1.10 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC UFA in 70%.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Blended
FC UFA
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and FC UFA in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 games (1.70 PPG), while FC UFA have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or FC UFA away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 2.25 PPG; FC UFA away: 0.75 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or FC UFA been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC UFA in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Krasnodar and FC UFA runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Krasnodar
2
Draws
0
FC UFA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and FC UFA?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 0, FC UFA have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and FC UFA last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when FC UFA 1-1 FC Krasnodar.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
FC UFA see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 25%, FC UFA 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Krasnodar) and 50% (FC UFA).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC UFA in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / FC UFA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play FC UFA?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 50% of FC UFA's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs FC UFA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 50% of FC UFA's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and FC UFA tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC UFA in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Krasnodar and FC UFA share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 11, as FC Krasnodar and FC UFA drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.67 xG and FC UFA 0.84 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.19 / defence 1.00 against FC UFA attack 0.72 / defence 1.35, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 57% | Draw 24% | FC UFA 19%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 50%, FC UFA 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
FC UFA's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.