FC Krasnodar 0-0 Dinamo Makhachkala – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dinamo Makhachkala make the trip to Stadion FK Krasnodar to face FC Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 July 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
FC Krasnodar (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Krasnodar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Krasnodar at Stadion FK Krasnodar this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — FC Krasnodar are significantly better at Stadion FK Krasnodar than their overall form suggests.
Dinamo Makhachkala have collected 1.00 PPG across 1 Premier League outings this season: 0W 1D 0L. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dinamo Makhachkala have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. FC Krasnodar's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Dinamo Makhachkala's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — FC Krasnodar have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dinamo Makhachkala in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.51 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 1.035 / defence 0.864 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.763 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.474. Data: 31 FC Krasnodar games / 1 Dinamo Makhachkala games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 47% | Draw 31% | Dinamo Makhachkala 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Dinamo Makhachkala 4.55. FC Krasnodar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Krasnodar are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 47% | Draw 31% | Dinamo Makhachkala 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.51 / Dinamo Makhachkala 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 1.035 / def 0.864 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.763 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
FC Krasnodar 0 - 0 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala part of?
FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 47% chance of winning, Dinamo Makhachkala a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Krasnodar and Dinamo Makhachkala will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Dinamo Makhachkala?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Krasnodar and Dinamo Makhachkala in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Krasnodar's attack at 1.03x the league average against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dinamo Makhachkala's attack (0.76x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
47%
2.12
31%
3.19
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.48
0.97
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
5%
20.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.3 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and Dinamo Makhachkala expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 0.97 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Krasnodar's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dinamo Makhachkala, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 0L across 1 games — 1.00 PPG, with D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for FC Krasnodar against 1.00 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dinamo Makhachkala are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Krasnodar have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Dinamo Makhachkala in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Early Season
Dinamo Makhachkala
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and Dinamo Makhachkala in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FC Krasnodar have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
FC Krasnodar
1
Draws
0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and Dinamo Makhachkala?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 3, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and Dinamo Makhachkala last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when FC Krasnodar 2-1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and Dinamo Makhachkala?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / Dinamo Makhachkala away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play Dinamo Makhachkala?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of FC Krasnodar's games and 100% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Krasnodar vs Dinamo Makhachkala usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 0% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and Dinamo Makhachkala tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dinamo Makhachkala in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Krasnodar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar and Dinamo Makhachkala finished level at 0-0 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.51 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.97 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Krasnodar fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Dinamo Makhachkala landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 1.03 / defence 0.86 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 47% | Draw 31% | Dinamo Makhachkala 22%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 0%, Dinamo Makhachkala 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 1.00 PPG, Dinamo Makhachkala 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Krasnodar managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dinamo Makhachkala managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.