FC Krasnodar 1-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion FK Krasnodar plays host to FC Krasnodar versus CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Krasnodar have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Krasnodar's home record at Stadion FK Krasnodar: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
CSKA Moscow (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier League this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for FC Krasnodar, 1.70 for CSKA Moscow — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: FC Krasnodar 0W, CSKA Moscow 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FC Krasnodar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Krasnodar 54% versus CSKA Moscow 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Krasnodar 46% | CSKA Moscow 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Krasnodar 1.28 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Krasnodar attack 0.877 / defence 1.058 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.867 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.209. CSKA Moscow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing FC Krasnodar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 FC Krasnodar games / 28 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 40% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Krasnodar 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | CSKA Moscow 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Krasnodar 50% | CSKA Moscow 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion FK Krasnodar • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Krasnodar 40% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Krasnodar 1.28 / CSKA Moscow 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: FC Krasnodar attack 0.877 / def 1.058 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.867 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
FC Krasnodar xG
Expected Goals
1.11
CSKA Moscow xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What was the final score in FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
FC Krasnodar 1 - 0 CSKA Moscow.
Where is FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion FK Krasnodar.
What competition is FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow part of?
FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC Krasnodar a 40% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
Record (1 meetings): FC Krasnodar 0W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 0W.
What form are FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow in?
FC Krasnodar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Krasnodar's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against CSKA Moscow's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.87x) against FC Krasnodar's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
40%
2.48
28%
3.62
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
FC Krasnodar xG
Total xG
2.39
1.11
CSKA Moscow xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FC Krasnodar and 1.11 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, FC Krasnodar have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 13W 7D 8L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 14W 5D 9L from 28 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for FC Krasnodar against 1.68 for CSKA Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Krasnodar have posted 1.77 PPG from 13 outings (7W 2D 4L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 6W 2D 5L from 13 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Krasnodar are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.36 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Krasnodar
Current Season
CSKA Moscow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
FC Krasnodar have gone 13W 7D 8L in their last 28 games (1.64 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 14W 5D 9L in their last 28 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Krasnodar at home or CSKA Moscow away?
FC Krasnodar's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Krasnodar at home: 1.77 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.54 PPG.
Have FC Krasnodar or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Krasnodar have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-1 on 10 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Krasnodar have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Krasnodar
3
Draws
3
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Krasnodar have won 4, CSKA Moscow have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when FC Krasnodar 3-2 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Krasnodar 46%, CSKA Moscow 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Krasnodar) and 38% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; CSKA Moscow in 31%; FC Krasnodar have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Krasnodar home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Krasnodar play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FC Krasnodar's recent matches and 46% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FC Krasnodar's recent games and 38% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
FC Krasnodar have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out CSKA Moscow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat CSKA Moscow 1-0 at Stadion FK Krasnodar, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Krasnodar 1.28 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.11 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Krasnodar attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.87 / defence 1.30, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Krasnodar 40% | Draw 28% | CSKA Moscow 32%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Krasnodar 46%, CSKA Moscow 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Krasnodar 1.64 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Krasnodar win broke the near-deadlock. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.