Khimki 4-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Krylia Sovetov at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Khimki host Krylia Sovetov at Arena Khimki in Premier League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Khimki have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's home record at Arena Khimki: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Krylia Sovetov stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Khimki at 1.20 PPG versus Krylia Sovetov's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Khimki, 1 for Krylia Sovetov and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–3 with Krylia Sovetov winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khimki in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Krylia Sovetov in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 52% versus Krylia Sovetov 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 52% | Krylia Sovetov 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.18 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 1.036 / defence 1.249 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.828 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.084 / away 1.193. Data: 25 Khimki games / 25 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 33% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 36%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Krylia Sovetov 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Krylia Sovetov are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Krylia Sovetov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Khimki 50% | Krylia Sovetov 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 33% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Khimki 1.18 / Krylia Sovetov 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 1.036 / def 1.249 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.828 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.084 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Krylia Sovetov (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Krylia Sovetov xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Khimki 4 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 33% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Krylia Sovetov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Khimki and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (1 meetings): Khimki 0W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 1W.
What form are Khimki and Krylia Sovetov in?
Khimki (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Khimki's attack rating (1.04) and Krylia Sovetov's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Krylia Sovetov's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Krylia Sovetov Win
33%
3.03
31%
3.20
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.41
1.24
Krylia Sovetov xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
10%
10.44
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Khimki and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Khimki and 1.24 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khimki come into this having played 25 games, going 5W 10D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Krylia Sovetov sit at 1.52 PPG from 25 outings (11W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Khimki — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Khimki's home form reads 2W 7D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Krylia Sovetov have taken 1.42 points per game from 12 outings (5W 2D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Khimki are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.28 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Krylia Sovetov in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 5W 10D 10L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 11W 5D 9L in their last 25 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
Krylia Sovetov's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 1.08 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Khimki or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2021, when Krylia Sovetov won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khimki's record when hosting Krylia Sovetov specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khimki
3
Draws
2
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, Krylia Sovetov have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Khimki 1-3 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Krylia Sovetov?
Krylia Sovetov have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khimki 58%, Krylia Sovetov 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Khimki) and 42% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 33%; Khimki have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Khimki's recent matches and 50% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khimki vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Khimki's recent games and 42% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Khimki run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki beat Krylia Sovetov 4-1 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.18 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.24 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Khimki beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 1.04 / defence 1.25 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.83 / defence 1.05, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 33% | Draw 31% | Krylia Sovetov 36%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Khimki win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 52%, Krylia Sovetov 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Krylia Sovetov arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Khimki winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Khimki (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.