Khimki 0-0 Fakel – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Khimki at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khimki vs Fakel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Fakel travel to Arena Khimki to take on Khimki. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Khimki have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki at Arena Khimki this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Khimki are significantly better at Arena Khimki than their overall form suggests.
Fakel — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Fakel have posted 0W 3D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fakel are 0.50 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Khimki register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fakel in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Khimki in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Fakel in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khimki 67% and Fakel 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Khimki 75% | Fakel 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.63 xG and Fakel 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.814 / defence 1.127 | Fakel attack 0.881 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.261. Data: 42 Khimki games / 12 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 44% | Draw 30% | Fakel 27%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Fakel 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khimki are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fakel (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khimki offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Khimki 60% | Fakel 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 44% | Draw 30% | Fakel 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Khimki 1.63 / Fakel 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.814 / def 1.127 | Fakel attack 0.881 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Khimki (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Fakel xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs Fakel kick off?
Khimki vs Fakel kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs Fakel?
Khimki 0 - 0 Fakel.
Where is Khimki vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs Fakel part of?
Khimki vs Fakel is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 44% chance of winning, Fakel a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Khimki and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Fakel?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khimki and Fakel in?
Khimki (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Fakel (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Khimki's attack at 0.81x the league average against Fakel's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fakel's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.38
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.88
1.25
Fakel xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
12%
8.00
5%
19.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Khimki and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Khimki and 1.25 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khimki's recent record stands at 2W 2D 8L from 12 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fakel, meanwhile, have gone 1W 7D 4L across 12 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khimki on 0.67 PPG, Fakel on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khimki have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fakel's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Khimki are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Fakel are on 1.33 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khimki have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Fakel in 83%.
Last 12 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Blended
Fakel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and Fakel in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while Fakel have gone 1W 7D 4L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or Fakel away?
Khimki's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 0.83 PPG; Fakel away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Khimki's record when hosting Fakel specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Khimki
3
Draws
0
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and Fakel?
From 4 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, Fakel have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Khimki 1-0 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and Fakel?
Khimki have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Khimki at 50%, Fakel at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Khimki and 67% for Fakel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Khimki keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Khimki have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play Fakel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Khimki's games and 100% of Fakel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khimki vs Fakel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Khimki's matches and 67% of Fakel's.
Do Khimki and Fakel tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Fakel in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Khimki's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khimki and Fakel finished level at 0-0 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.63 xG and Fakel 1.25 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Khimki fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Fakel landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against Fakel attack 0.88 / defence 1.19, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 44% | Draw 30% | Fakel 27%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 75%, Fakel 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fakel's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khimki 0.67 PPG, Fakel 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Fakel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.