FC Rostov 1-1 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Krasnodar at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rostov Arena plays host to FC Rostov versus FC Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Monday 13 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Rostov have collected 0.83 PPG across 6 Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 3L. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. FC Rostov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Rostov have posted 0W 0D 3L at Rostov Arena — 0.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.00 lags behind their overall 0.83 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Rostov Arena this season.
FC Krasnodar (all games): 3W 0D 3L across 6 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.83 per game and conceding 1.33. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Krasnodar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Krasnodar's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 road games this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, FC Krasnodar are the stronger side — 0.67 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.83). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, FC Krasnodar in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
FC Krasnodar — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Rostov 83% and FC Krasnodar 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 50% | FC Krasnodar 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.24 xG and FC Krasnodar 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 0.880 / defence 1.590 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.077 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.239. FC Krasnodar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing FC Rostov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 FC Rostov games / 6 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 21% | Draw 23% | FC Krasnodar 56%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 4.76 | Draw 4.35 | FC Krasnodar 1.79. The model has a clear lean to FC Krasnodar (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Krasnodar as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.36 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Rostov 67% | FC Krasnodar 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 21% | Draw 23% | FC Krasnodar 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG FC Rostov 1.24 / FC Krasnodar 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 0.880 / def 1.590 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.077 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
2.12
FC Krasnodar xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar?
FC Rostov 1 - 1 FC Krasnodar.
Where is FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar part of?
FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 21% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 56% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar in?
FC Rostov (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 3W-0D-3L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Rostov's attack rating (0.88) and FC Krasnodar's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.08x) against FC Rostov's defence (1.59x) — and the away total comes out at 2.12.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
21%
4.84
23%
4.37
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
3.36
2.12
FC Krasnodar xG
4.84
21%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
12%
8.34
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
2%
40.35
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for FC Rostov and 2.12 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Rostov's recent record stands at 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Rostov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Krasnodar, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 3L across 6 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Krasnodar by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Rostov heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Rostov have managed 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — 0.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.83 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
FC Krasnodar's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Krasnodar's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Rostov are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.83 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Early Season
FC Krasnodar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 0.00 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.00 PPG.
Have FC Rostov or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Krasnodar won 3-0 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Rostov have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Rostov
2
Draws
6
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 2, FC Krasnodar have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when FC Krasnodar 2-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for FC Rostov, 67% for FC Krasnodar — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Rostov and 100% for FC Krasnodar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 33%; FC Rostov have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Rostov's games and 67% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Rostov vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Rostov's matches and 100% of FC Krasnodar's.
Do FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
FC Rostov have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 7, as FC Rostov and FC Krasnodar drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.24 xG and FC Krasnodar 2.12 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Krasnodar landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.88 / defence 1.59 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.08 / defence 1.27, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 21% | Draw 23% | FC Krasnodar 56%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 50%, FC Krasnodar 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Rostov (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.