FC Rostov 2-3 Akhmat – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Rostov at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Rostov vs Akhmat encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Rostov and Akhmat meet at Rostov Arena in Premier League (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC Rostov have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, FC Rostov have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FC Rostov are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Akhmat (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Akhmat's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in FC Rostov's favour (0.90 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for FC Rostov, 1 for Akhmat and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended FC Rostov 0–0 Akhmat — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
FC Rostov half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Akhmat half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Rostov 57% versus Akhmat 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 60% | Akhmat 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.56 xG and Akhmat 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.003 / defence 1.013 | Akhmat attack 0.679 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.253. Akhmat's defence rating of 1.206 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Rostov's projected output up. Akhmat's attack rating of 0.679 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from FC Rostov's last 42 games and Akhmat's last 42.
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 51% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 1.96 | Draw 3.22 | Akhmat 5.58. FC Rostov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Rostov are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Rostov if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Rostov 70% (last 10 home games) | Akhmat 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, matchday 13 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 51% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG FC Rostov 1.56 / Akhmat 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 1.003 / def 1.013 | Akhmat attack 0.679 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Akhmat xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Rostov vs Akhmat FAQs
What time does FC Rostov vs Akhmat kick off?
FC Rostov vs Akhmat kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Akhmat?
FC Rostov 2 - 3 Akhmat.
Where is FC Rostov vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Akhmat part of?
FC Rostov vs Akhmat is a Premier League fixture (matchday 13) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 51% chance of winning, Akhmat a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Rostov and Akhmat will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will FC Rostov vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Rostov's attack at 1.00x the league average against Akhmat's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.68x) against FC Rostov's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from FC Rostov's last 42 games and Akhmat's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
51%
1.96
31%
3.22
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
2.42
0.86
Akhmat xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
4%
26.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Rostov vs Akhmat Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC Rostov and 0.86 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, FC Rostov have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 15W 11D 16L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Akhmat's form line: 10W 11D 21L from 42 games, 0.98 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for FC Rostov against 0.98 for Akhmat. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Rostov have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 21 home games (11W 7D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — FC Rostov are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Akhmat have gone 5W 4D 12L from their last 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Rostov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Rostov are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.00 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
FC Rostov (Home) vs Akhmat (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Rostov
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ FC Rostov vs Akhmat Form FAQs
What form are FC Rostov and Akhmat in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 15W 11D 16L in their last 42 games (1.33 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 10W 11D 21L in their last 42 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Akhmat away?
FC Rostov's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 1.90 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between FC Rostov and Akhmat, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Akhmat have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Rostov won FC Rostov 3-0 Akhmat on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Rostov have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Rostov
2
Draws
5
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Rostov vs Akhmat H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Akhmat?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Rostov have won 3, Akhmat have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Akhmat last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Akhmat 4-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Akhmat?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Rostov 62%, Akhmat 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC Rostov) and 38% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: FC Rostov keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Akhmat in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Rostov vs Akhmat Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Rostov and Akhmat matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 33% of Akhmat's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Rostov and Akhmat matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of FC Rostov's recent games and 38% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Rostov and Akhmat matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 62% of Akhmat's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Akhmat defy the odds to beat FC Rostov 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat FC Rostov 2-3 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.56 xG and Akhmat 0.86 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Akhmat outscored their 0.86 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against Akhmat attack 0.68 / defence 1.21, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 51% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 18%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Akhmat win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 60%, Akhmat 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Akhmat's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.33 PPG, Akhmat 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. FC Rostov (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.