Enisey 0-1 Fakel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Enisey at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Enisey vs Fakel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Futbol-arena Enisey plays host to Enisey versus Fakel in Premier League, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Wednesday 7 June 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fakel (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Fakel have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Enisey 1.14 xG and Fakel 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Enisey attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Fakel attack 0.705 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.304. Data: 0 Enisey games / 30 Fakel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Enisey 36% | Draw 32% | Fakel 32%. Fair-value odds: Enisey 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Fakel 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Enisey as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Enisey if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Enisey vs Fakel | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Futbol-arena Enisey • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Jun 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Enisey 36% | Draw 32% | Fakel 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Enisey 1.14 / Fakel 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Enisey attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Fakel attack 0.705 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Enisey (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Enisey xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Fakel xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Enisey vs Fakel kick off?
Enisey vs Fakel kicked off at 13:00 on Wednesday 7 June 2023 at Futbol-arena Enisey.
What was the final score in Enisey vs Fakel?
Enisey 0 - 1 Fakel.
Where is Enisey vs Fakel being played?
The match is being played at Futbol-arena Enisey.
What competition is Enisey vs Fakel part of?
Enisey vs Fakel is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Enisey vs Fakel?
Our statistical model gives Enisey a 36% chance of winning, Fakel a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Enisey the favourite.
Will both teams score in Enisey vs Fakel?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Enisey and Fakel will score (BTTS).
Will Enisey vs Fakel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Enisey and Fakel?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Enisey and Fakel in?
Fakel (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Fakel away split: 0.80 PPG from 10 | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Enisey's attack at 0.85x the league average against Fakel's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fakel's attack (0.70x) against Enisey's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Enisey Win
36%
2.75
32%
3.17
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Enisey xG
Total xG
2.20
1.06
Fakel xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Enisey vs Fakel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Enisey and Fakel expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Enisey and 1.06 for Fakel, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Enisey vs Fakel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Enisey
Pre-Season
Fakel
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Enisey
0
Draws
2
Fakel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Enisey and Fakel?
From 2 meetings on record, Enisey have won 0, Fakel have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Enisey and Fakel last play each other?
They last met on 10 June 2023, when Fakel 2-0 Enisey.
Who has won more matches between Enisey and Fakel?
Fakel have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Enisey home games / Fakel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Fakel defy the odds to beat Enisey 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fakel beat Enisey 0-1 at Futbol-arena Enisey, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Enisey 1.14 xG and Fakel 1.06 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Enisey fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Enisey attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Fakel attack 0.70 / defence 0.87, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Enisey 36% | Draw 32% | Fakel 32%, with Enisey to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Fakel win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.