Dynamo 6-1 Khimki – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dynamo at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo vs Khimki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VTB Arena plays host to Dynamo versus Khimki in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 29 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Dynamo (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo at VTB Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Khimki have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Dynamo. A 1.30 PPG lead over Khimki (1.50 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dynamo lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 3–0 with Dynamo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Dynamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Khimki goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo 59% versus Khimki 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo 52% | Khimki 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo 2.19 xG and Khimki 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo attack 0.951 / defence 0.946 | Khimki attack 0.827 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.258. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Dynamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Dynamo games / 44 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo 63% | Draw 23% | Khimki 14%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Khimki 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo 50% | Khimki 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: VTB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo 63% | Draw 23% | Khimki 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 57% | xG Dynamo 2.19 / Khimki 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo attack 0.951 / def 0.946 | Khimki attack 0.827 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Dynamo xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Khimki xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo vs Khimki kick off?
Dynamo vs Khimki kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at VTB Arena.
What was the final score in Dynamo vs Khimki?
Dynamo 6 - 1 Khimki.
Where is Dynamo vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at VTB Arena.
What competition is Dynamo vs Khimki part of?
Dynamo vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo a 63% chance of winning, Khimki a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dynamo and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and Khimki?
Record (2 meetings): Dynamo 2W | Draws 0 | Khimki 0W.
What form are Dynamo and Khimki in?
Dynamo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Khimki (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dynamo's attack rating (0.95) and Khimki's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Khimki's attack (0.83x) against Dynamo's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
63%
1.59
23%
4.36
14%
7.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Dynamo xG
Total xG
3.17
0.98
Khimki xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
7.11
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
11%
8.92
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
2%
63.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Dynamo and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Dynamo and 0.98 for Khimki, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo vs Khimki?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dynamo come into this having played 44 games, going 22W 10D 12L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khimki sit at 0.93 PPG from 44 outings (9W 14D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Khimki — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dynamo's home form reads 11W 5D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Khimki have taken 0.55 points per game from 22 outings (3W 3D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dynamo are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.09 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo and Khimki in coming into this match?
Dynamo have gone 22W 10D 12L in their last 44 games (1.73 PPG), while Khimki have gone 9W 14D 21L in their last 44 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo at home or Khimki away?
Dynamo's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo at home: 1.73 PPG; Khimki away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Dynamo or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Khimki in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dynamo go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dynamo won 6-1 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dynamo have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Khimki — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Dynamo
0
Draws
0
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, Dynamo have won 6, Khimki have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Dynamo 4-1 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo and Khimki?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo 54%, Khimki 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Dynamo) and 68% (Khimki).
On the defensive side: Dynamo keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Khimki in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Dynamo's recent matches and 54% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Dynamo's recent games and 68% of Khimki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo and Khimki tend to score early?
Dynamo have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Khimki in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dynamo run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Khimki 6-1 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 2.19 xG and Khimki 0.98 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Dynamo beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against Khimki attack 0.83 / defence 1.35, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo 63% | Draw 23% | Khimki 14%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 52%, Khimki 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Khimki's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. Khimki (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.