CSKA Moscow 1-0 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Spartak Moscow travel to VEB Arena to take on CSKA Moscow. The game is scheduled for Monday 20 September 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, CSKA Moscow stand at 3W 1D 3L from 7 Premier League matches — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. CSKA Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, CSKA Moscow have posted 2W 0D 1L at VEB Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VEB Arena. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.43 — CSKA Moscow are significantly better at VEB Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have recorded 3W 1D 3L from 7 outings — 1.43 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.14 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Spartak Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Spartak Moscow have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: CSKA Moscow 1.43 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.43 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
CSKA Moscow in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Spartak Moscow in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 57% versus Spartak Moscow 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 57% | Spartak Moscow 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.03 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 0.956 / defence 1.006 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.696 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.299. Data: 7 CSKA Moscow games / 7 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 36% | Draw 34% | Spartak Moscow 30%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Spartak Moscow 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is CSKA Moscow at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: CSKA Moscow 33% | Spartak Moscow 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Monday 20 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 36% | Draw 34% | Spartak Moscow 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.03 / Spartak Moscow 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 0.956 / def 1.006 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.696 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Spartak Moscow xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 20 September 2021 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow?
CSKA Moscow 1 - 0 Spartak Moscow.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 36% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.14 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Spartak Moscow's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus CSKA Moscow's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
36%
2.76
34%
2.95
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
1.94
0.91
Spartak Moscow xG
2.76
36%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.91 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Spartak Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 3L across 7 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: CSKA Moscow on 1.43 PPG, Spartak Moscow on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — CSKA Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Spartak Moscow's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.14 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Early Season
Spartak Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Spartak Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.00 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
CSKA Moscow's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
CSKA Moscow
3
Draws
3
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 4, Spartak Moscow have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Spartak Moscow 1-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Spartak Moscow tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — CSKA Moscow 33% BTTS, Spartak Moscow 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for CSKA Moscow and 0% for Spartak Moscow.
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Spartak Moscow in 33%; Spartak Moscow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 33% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 0% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Spartak Moscow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Spartak Moscow 1-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.03 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.91 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Spartak Moscow landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.70 / defence 0.97, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 36% | Draw 34% | Spartak Moscow 30%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 57%, Spartak Moscow 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.43 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.