CSKA Moscow 4-0 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 47%, yet in-form FC Rostov provide a compelling counter-argument — this CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Rostov make the trip to VEB Arena to face CSKA Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
CSKA Moscow have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at VEB Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VEB Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Rostov's overall Premier League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC Rostov's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Rostov are 0.60 PPG clear of CSKA Moscow in recent Premier League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 38% versus FC Rostov 79%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 34% | FC Rostov 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.35 xG and FC Rostov 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.050 / defence 0.909 | FC Rostov attack 0.837 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.196. Data: 29 CSKA Moscow games / 29 FC Rostov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 47% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 25%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | FC Rostov 4.00. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Rostov (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: CSKA Moscow 30% | FC Rostov 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 47% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.35 / FC Rostov 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.050 / def 0.909 | FC Rostov attack 0.837 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FC Rostov xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
CSKA Moscow 4 - 0 FC Rostov.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov part of?
CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 47% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. FC Rostov (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against FC Rostov's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.84x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.61
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.27
0.91
FC Rostov xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.91 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 14W 5D 10L from 29 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
FC Rostov, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 11L across 29 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for CSKA Moscow against 1.31 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 8W 3D 3L from 14 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Rostov's away record stands at 4W 6D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.62 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov in 79%.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Current Season
FC Rostov
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 14W 5D 10L in their last 29 games (1.62 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 10W 8D 11L in their last 29 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or FC Rostov away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 1.93 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.29 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or FC Rostov been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, FC Rostov in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
CSKA Moscow
5
Draws
2
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 3, FC Rostov have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when FC Rostov 0-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 29%, FC Rostov 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (CSKA Moscow) and 57% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; CSKA Moscow have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play FC Rostov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 29% of CSKA Moscow's games and 86% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 57% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, FC Rostov in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant CSKA Moscow run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Rostov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat FC Rostov 4-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.35 xG and FC Rostov 0.91 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. CSKA Moscow beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Rostov landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.05 / defence 0.91 against FC Rostov attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 47% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 25%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 34%, FC Rostov 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Rostov's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.62 PPG, FC Rostov 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.