Baltika 0-1 Akron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baltika at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Akron encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akron make the trip to Rostec Arena to face Baltika in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Baltika's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Baltika, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baltika have posted 6W 4D 0L at Rostec Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rostec Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Baltika are significantly better at Rostec Arena than their overall form suggests.
Akron have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Akron, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akron's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Baltika's 1.70 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Akron's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Baltika lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Baltika winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Baltika — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Akron — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 38% versus Akron 73%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 27% | Akron 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 2.06 xG and Akron 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 1.080 / defence 0.937 | Akron attack 1.082 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.050. Akron bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Baltika's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Baltika games / 56 Akron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baltika 60% | Draw 21% | Akron 19%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Akron 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Baltika (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baltika as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Baltika 20% | Akron 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Akron | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Monday 27 Apr 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 60% | Draw 21% | Akron 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Baltika 2.06 / Akron 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 1.080 / def 0.937 | Akron attack 1.082 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Baltika (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Akron xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baltika vs Akron kick off?
Baltika vs Akron kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 April 2026 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Akron?
Baltika 0 - 1 Akron.
Where is Baltika vs Akron being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Akron part of?
Baltika vs Akron is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Akron?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 60% chance of winning, Akron a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Akron?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Baltika and Akron will score (BTTS).
Will Baltika vs Akron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Akron?
Record (1 meetings): Baltika 1W | Draws 0 | Akron 0W.
What form are Baltika and Akron in?
Baltika (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Akron (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Baltika's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Akron's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Akron's attack (1.08x) against Baltika's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.68
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Baltika xG
Total xG
3.13
1.06
Akron xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
2%
42.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Akron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Baltika and Akron expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Baltika and 1.06 for Akron, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Akron?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baltika come into this having played 26 games, going 11W 13D 2L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Baltika is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Akron sit at 0.92 PPG from 26 outings (5W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Akron is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baltika carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Akron — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baltika's home form reads 7W 5D 0L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Akron have taken 0.92 points per game from 12 outings (3W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baltika are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Akron are on 1.23 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akron in 73%.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Akron
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baltika and Akron in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 11W 13D 2L in their last 26 games (1.77 PPG), while Akron have gone 5W 9D 12L in their last 26 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Akron away?
Baltika's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 2.17 PPG; Akron away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Baltika or Akron been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Akron in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Baltika
0
Draws
1
Akron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Akron?
From 2 meetings on record, Baltika have won 1, Akron have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Akron last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Baltika 0-1 Akron.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Akron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 33%, Akron 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Baltika) and 50% (Akron).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Akron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baltika play Akron?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Baltika's recent matches and 58% of Akron's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baltika vs Akron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Baltika's recent games and 50% of Akron's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Akron tend to score early?
Baltika have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Akron in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Akron defy the odds to beat Baltika 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akron beat Baltika 0-1 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 2.06 xG and Akron 1.06 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baltika fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Akron attack 1.08 / defence 1.38, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 60% | Draw 21% | Akron 19%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Akron win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 27%, Akron 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Akron's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Akron winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Akron (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.