Akhmat 1-0 Ural – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Akhmat at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Akhmat vs Ural encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Ural travel to Akhmat Arena to take on Akhmat. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Akhmat have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akhmat have posted 2W 4D 4L at Akhmat Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ural — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ural, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ural have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Akhmat 0.60 PPG, Ural 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Akhmat hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Ural, with 1 draws in between.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Akhmat winning.
The historical record gives Akhmat a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Akhmat in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Ural in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 65% versus Ural 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 62% | Ural 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.44 xG and Ural 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.931 / defence 1.022 | Ural attack 0.904 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 0.977. Data: 48 Akhmat games / 48 Ural games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 47% | Draw 31% | Ural 21%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Ural 4.76. Akhmat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Akhmat as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Akhmat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Akhmat 70% | Ural 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Ural | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 47% | Draw 31% | Ural 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Akhmat 1.44 / Ural 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.931 / def 1.022 | Ural attack 0.904 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.416 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Ural xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Ural kick off?
Akhmat vs Ural kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Ural?
Akhmat 1 - 0 Ural.
Where is Akhmat vs Ural being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Ural part of?
Akhmat vs Ural is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Ural?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 47% chance of winning, Ural a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Ural?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Akhmat and Ural will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Ural have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Ural?
Record (5 meetings): Akhmat 4W | Draws 1 | Ural 0W.
What form are Akhmat and Ural in?
Akhmat (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Ural (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Akhmat's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Ural's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Ural's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
47%
2.11
31%
3.21
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.34
0.90
Ural xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.11
52%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
19.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Ural?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Ural expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Akhmat and 0.90 for Ural, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Ural?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Akhmat's recent record stands at 19W 10D 19L from 48 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ural, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 23L across 48 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Ural is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Akhmat on 1.40 PPG, Ural on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 9W 6D 9L from 24 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ural's away record stands at 6W 6D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Akhmat are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Ural are on 1.06 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Ural
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Ural in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 19W 10D 19L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Ural have gone 15W 10D 23L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Ural away?
Akhmat's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.38 PPG; Ural away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Akhmat's record when hosting Ural specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Akhmat
1
Draws
1
Ural
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Ural?
From 8 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 6, Ural have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Ural last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Akhmat 2-0 Ural.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Ural?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ural are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 62%, Ural 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Akhmat) and 50% (Ural).
On the defensive side: Ural in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Ural away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Ural?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Akhmat's recent matches and 38% of Ural's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akhmat vs Ural usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Akhmat's recent games and 50% of Ural's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Ural tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ural in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Akhmat edge out Ural 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat Ural 1-0 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.44 xG and Ural 0.90 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ural landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Ural attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 47% | Draw 31% | Ural 21%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 62%, Ural 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Ural's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.40 PPG, Ural 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Ural (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.