Akhmat 3-1 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nizhny Novgorod at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Akhmat Arena plays host to Akhmat versus Nizhny Novgorod in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Akhmat have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Akhmat Arena, Akhmat have gone 3W 0D 3L this season (6 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Nizhny Novgorod (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nizhny Novgorod, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nizhny Novgorod's away record: 3W 2D 1L from 6 road trips in Premier League this season (1.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.83 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Akhmat's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Akhmat — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Nizhny Novgorod — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Akhmat 54% and Nizhny Novgorod 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 54% | Nizhny Novgorod 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 0.93 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.744 / defence 1.177 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.895 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.056. Akhmat's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Akhmat games / 13 Nizhny Novgorod games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 30% | Draw 30% | Nizhny Novgorod 40%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Nizhny Novgorod 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nizhny Novgorod as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Akhmat (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nizhny Novgorod if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Akhmat 50% | Nizhny Novgorod 67%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 30% | Draw 30% | Nizhny Novgorod 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Akhmat 0.93 / Nizhny Novgorod 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.744 / def 1.177 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.895 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Nizhny Novgorod (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Nizhny Novgorod xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Akhmat 3 - 1 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 30% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nizhny Novgorod the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod in?
Akhmat (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Nizhny Novgorod (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 0.74x the league average against Nizhny Novgorod's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nizhny Novgorod's attack (0.90x) against Akhmat's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nizhny Novgorod Win
30%
3.33
30%
3.30
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.04
1.11
Nizhny Novgorod xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
10%
10.13
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 14.5 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.11 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 13 outings, Akhmat have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 5W 0D 8L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nizhny Novgorod's form line: 4W 2D 7L from 13 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Nizhny Novgorod is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Akhmat against 1.08 for Nizhny Novgorod. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Akhmat have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L).
On the road, Nizhny Novgorod have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 away games — 1.83 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.08 PPG overall record — Nizhny Novgorod travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Akhmat are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 1.08 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nizhny Novgorod in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 5W 0D 8L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 4W 2D 7L in their last 13 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Nizhny Novgorod's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.50 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 1.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Akhmat go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Akhmat won 5-1 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Akhmat
0
Draws
5
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 5, Nizhny Novgorod have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Akhmat 2-0 Nizhny Novgorod.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 50%, Nizhny Novgorod 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Akhmat) and 33% (Nizhny Novgorod).
On the defensive side: Akhmat have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Nizhny Novgorod?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Akhmat's games and 67% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs Nizhny Novgorod usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Akhmat's recent games and 33% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Nizhny Novgorod tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Nizhny Novgorod in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nizhny Novgorod.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat beat Nizhny Novgorod 3-1 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 0.93 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.11 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Akhmat beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.74 / defence 1.18 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 30% | Draw 30% | Nizhny Novgorod 40%, with Nizhny Novgorod to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Akhmat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 54%, Nizhny Novgorod 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.15 PPG, Nizhny Novgorod 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Akhmat win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.