Akhmat 1-1 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Krasnodar at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Akhmat and FC Krasnodar meet at Akhmat Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 July 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Akhmat's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Akhmat haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akhmat have posted 4W 1D 5L at Akhmat Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
FC Krasnodar (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Krasnodar haven't played a Premier League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, FC Krasnodar have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Akhmat, 1.70 for FC Krasnodar — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Akhmat 2W, FC Krasnodar 1W, 3D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 1–0 with Akhmat winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Akhmat — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
FC Krasnodar — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 50% versus FC Krasnodar 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 47% | FC Krasnodar 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.47 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 1.009 / defence 1.227 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.011 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.318. Data: 30 Akhmat games / 30 FC Krasnodar games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Akhmat 33% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 41%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | FC Krasnodar 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 50% | FC Krasnodar 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 33% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Akhmat 1.47 / FC Krasnodar 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 1.009 / def 1.227 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.011 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.64
FC Krasnodar xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar?
Akhmat 1 - 1 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 33% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Akhmat and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and FC Krasnodar?
Record (6 meetings): Akhmat 2W | Draws 3 | FC Krasnodar 1W.
What form are Akhmat and FC Krasnodar in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Akhmat (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Akhmat's attack rating (1.01) and FC Krasnodar's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.01x) against Akhmat's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
33%
3.00
26%
3.83
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Akhmat xG
Total xG
3.10
1.64
FC Krasnodar xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
6%
15.41
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.8 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Akhmat and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.64 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Akhmat come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 5D 15L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. Akhmat haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 1.87 PPG from 30 outings (16W 8D 6L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. FC Krasnodar haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Akhmat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Akhmat's home form reads 5W 3D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 1.40 points per game from 15 outings (5W 6D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Krasnodar's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Akhmat are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 1.50 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Pre-Season
FC Krasnodar
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 10W 5D 15L in their last 30 games (1.17 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 16W 8D 6L in their last 30 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.20 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Akhmat or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Krasnodar have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Akhmat
4
Draws
4
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and FC Krasnodar?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 2, FC Krasnodar have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Akhmat 0-1 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 60%, FC Krasnodar 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Akhmat) and 40% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: FC Krasnodar in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play FC Krasnodar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Akhmat's games and 60% of FC Krasnodar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Akhmat's recent games and 40% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat and FC Krasnodar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat and FC Krasnodar finished level at 1-1 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.47 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.64 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 1.01 / defence 1.23 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 33% | Draw 26% | FC Krasnodar 41%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 47%, FC Krasnodar 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.