Akhmat 1-3 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
CSKA Moscow make the trip to Akhmat Arena to face Akhmat in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Akhmat's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akhmat have posted 5W 1D 4L at Akhmat Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
CSKA Moscow have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Akhmat lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 2–4 with CSKA Moscow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 61% versus CSKA Moscow 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 56% | CSKA Moscow 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.27 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.953 / defence 0.703 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.917 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.450. Akhmat's defence rating of 0.703 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Akhmat games / 54 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 43% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 26%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | CSKA Moscow 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Akhmat as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Akhmat if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 50% | CSKA Moscow 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 43% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Akhmat 1.27 / CSKA Moscow 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.953 / def 0.703 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.917 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
0.94
CSKA Moscow xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Akhmat 1 - 3 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 43% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Akhmat and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and CSKA Moscow?
Record (3 meetings): Akhmat 1W | Draws 0 | CSKA Moscow 2W.
What form are Akhmat and CSKA Moscow in?
Akhmat (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 0.95x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.92x) against Akhmat's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
43%
2.34
31%
3.19
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.20
0.94
CSKA Moscow xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Akhmat and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Akhmat and 0.94 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Akhmat's recent record stands at 25W 7D 22L from 54 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 15L across 54 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Akhmat against 1.76 for CSKA Moscow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 15W 2D 10L from 27 games — 1.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
CSKA Moscow's away record stands at 11W 5D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Akhmat are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.57 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Blended
CSKA Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 25W 7D 22L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 28W 11D 15L in their last 54 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or CSKA Moscow away?
Akhmat's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.74 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Akhmat or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 3-0 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Akhmat
1
Draws
6
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 3, CSKA Moscow have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Akhmat 1-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
CSKA Moscow see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 56%, CSKA Moscow 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Akhmat) and 44% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play CSKA Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Akhmat's recent matches and 48% of CSKA Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Akhmat's recent games and 44% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Akhmat.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Akhmat 1-3 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.27 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.94 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.95 / defence 0.70 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.92 / defence 0.89, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 43% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 26%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 56%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.52 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Akhmat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.