Vizela 1-2 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sporting CP (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Vizela face Sporting CP.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Do Vizela plays host to Vizela versus Sporting CP in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023 at 21:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vizela have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Estádio Do Vizela, Vizela have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sporting CP's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sporting CP's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Sporting CP arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Sporting CP hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2023, ended 1–2 with Sporting CP winning.
It is worth noting that Sporting CP have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Vizela goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sporting CP goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 49% versus Sporting CP 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 43% | Sporting CP 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 0.93 xG and Sporting CP 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.831 / defence 1.036 | Sporting CP attack 1.440 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.092. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.440 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Vizela games / 67 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 21% | Draw 25% | Sporting CP 54%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Sporting CP 1.85. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sporting CP if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 40% | Sporting CP 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 21% | Draw 25% | Sporting CP 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Vizela 0.93 / Sporting CP 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.831 / def 1.036 | Sporting CP attack 1.440 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Sporting CP xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Sporting CP kick off?
Vizela vs Sporting CP kicked off at 21:15 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Sporting CP?
Vizela 1 - 2 Sporting CP.
Where is Vizela vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Sporting CP part of?
Vizela vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 21% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 54% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Vizela and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Sporting CP?
Record (3 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 0 | Sporting CP 3W.
What form are Vizela and Sporting CP in?
Vizela (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Sporting CP (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vizela's attack at 0.83x the league average against Sporting CP's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.44x) against Vizela's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
21%
4.66
25%
4.05
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.56
1.63
Sporting CP xG
4.66
21%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
4%
23.75
21%
4.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Vizela and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Vizela and 1.63 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vizela come into this having played 67 games, going 18W 19D 30L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Sporting CP sit at 2.33 PPG from 67 outings (49W 9D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.24 PPG clear of Vizela — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Vizela's home form reads 9W 11D 13L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Sporting CP have taken 2.18 points per game from 33 outings (22W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vizela are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.12 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Current Season
Sporting CP
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 18W 19D 30L in their last 67 games (1.09 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 49W 9D 9L in their last 67 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.15 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.18 PPG.
Have Vizela or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sporting CP go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 3-0 on 6 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vizela
0
Draws
6
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Sporting CP?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 0, Sporting CP have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2024, when Vizela 2-5 Sporting CP.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 46%, Sporting CP 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Vizela) and 61% (Sporting CP).
On the defensive side: Sporting CP in 36%; Vizela have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Sporting CP?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Vizela's recent matches and 54% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Vizela's recent games and 61% of Sporting CP's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Vizela 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Vizela 1-2 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 0.93 xG and Sporting CP 1.63 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Sporting CP attack 1.44 / defence 0.82, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 21% | Draw 25% | Sporting CP 54%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 43%, Sporting CP 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sporting CP's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Vizela (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.