Vizela 2-3 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vizela face Portimonense.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Do Vizela plays host to Vizela versus Portimonense in Primeira Liga (matchday 7). Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Vizela have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Vizela's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Portimonense's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Portimonense's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Vizela against 0.60 for Portimonense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Vizela edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Vizela 1–0 Portimonense — a Vizela win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Vizela — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Portimonense — key trading statistics (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 40% versus Portimonense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 45% | Portimonense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 1.58 xG and Portimonense 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.908 / defence 1.011 | Portimonense attack 0.902 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.200. Data: built from Vizela's last 40 games and Portimonense's last 40.
Result probabilities: Vizela 49% | Draw 25% | Portimonense 26%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 2.05 | Draw 3.99 | Portimonense 3.81. Vizela hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vizela at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Vizela 60% (last 10 home games) | Portimonense 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 7 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 49% | Draw 25% | Portimonense 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Vizela 1.58 / Portimonense 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.908 / def 1.011 | Portimonense attack 0.902 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Vizela (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Portimonense xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vizela vs Portimonense FAQs
What time does Vizela vs Portimonense kick off?
Vizela vs Portimonense kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Portimonense?
Vizela 2 - 3 Portimonense.
Where is Vizela vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Portimonense part of?
Vizela vs Portimonense is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 7) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 49% chance of winning, Portimonense a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Vizela and Portimonense will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vizela vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vizela's attack rating (0.91) and Portimonense's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Portimonense's attack (0.90x) against Vizela's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from Vizela's last 40 games and Portimonense's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
49%
2.05
25%
3.99
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.68
1.09
Portimonense xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
5%
18.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vizela vs Portimonense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Vizela and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Vizela and 1.09 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vizela's recent record stands at 12W 9D 19L from 40 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Portimonense, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 23L across 40 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Vizela against 0.98 for Portimonense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vizela have managed 6W 5D 9L from their last 20 home games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Portimonense's away record stands at 5W 2D 13L across their last 20 away games, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vizela are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 0.78 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Early Season
Portimonense
Early Season
Vizela (Home) vs Portimonense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vizela
Early Season
Portimonense
Early Season
❓ Vizela vs Portimonense Form FAQs
What form are Vizela and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 12W 9D 19L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 11W 6D 23L in their last 40 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Portimonense away?
Vizela's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.15 PPG; Portimonense away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Vizela or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Portimonense in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent in our data was on 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vizela have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Portimonense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Vizela
3
Draws
1
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Vizela vs Portimonense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Portimonense?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vizela have won 2, Portimonense have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Portimonense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 March 2024: Portimonense 0-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Portimonense?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Vizela) and 30% (Portimonense) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vizela) and 40% (Portimonense).
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 40% of games; Portimonense in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vizela vs Portimonense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vizela and Portimonense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Vizela's recent matches and 30% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vizela and Portimonense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vizela's recent games and 40% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Portimonense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Vizela's recent matches and 80% of Portimonense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Portimonense defy the odds to beat Vizela 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Vizela 2-3 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 1.58 xG and Portimonense 1.09 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Portimonense outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.91 / defence 1.01 against Portimonense attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 49% | Draw 25% | Portimonense 26%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Portimonense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 45%, Portimonense 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Portimonense's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 1.12 PPG, Portimonense 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portimonense win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portimonense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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