Vizela 2-0 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Vizela take on Belenenses.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vizela host Belenenses at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 January 2022 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Vizela have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 2L across 7 games at Estádio Do Vizela this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Belenenses — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Belenenses, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Belenenses's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Vizela) versus 0.70 (Belenenses). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Vizela in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Belenenses in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 64% versus Belenenses 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vizela 43% | Belenenses 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 0.88 xG and Belenenses 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 0.725 / defence 1.229 | Belenenses attack 0.529 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.413. Vizela's attack strength of 0.725 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Vizela games / 14 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 32% | Draw 34% | Belenenses 34%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Belenenses 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 71% | Belenenses 14% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jan 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 32% | Draw 34% | Belenenses 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Vizela 0.88 / Belenenses 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 0.725 / def 1.229 | Belenenses attack 0.529 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Belenenses xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Belenenses kick off?
Vizela vs Belenenses kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 2 January 2022 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Belenenses?
Vizela 2 - 0 Belenenses.
Where is Vizela vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Belenenses part of?
Vizela vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 32% chance of winning, Belenenses a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Vizela and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Belenenses?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vizela and Belenenses in?
Vizela (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Belenenses (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Vizela's attack at 0.72x the league average against Belenenses's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Belenenses's attack versus Vizela's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.15
34%
2.91
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Vizela xG
Total xG
1.80
0.92
Belenenses xG
3.15
32%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 15.2 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Vizela and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Vizela and 0.92 for Belenenses, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Belenenses?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vizela's recent record stands at 2W 7D 5L from 14 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Belenenses, meanwhile, have gone 1W 5D 8L across 14 games — 0.57 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Belenenses is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vizela on 0.93 PPG, Belenenses on 0.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Vizela have managed 1W 4D 2L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Belenenses's away record stands at 0W 3D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vizela come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vizela are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.50 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Belenenses
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Belenenses in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 2W 7D 5L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 1W 5D 8L in their last 14 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Belenenses away?
Vizela's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.00 PPG; Belenenses away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Vizela
0
Draws
1
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, Vizela have won 1, Belenenses have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Belenenses 1-0 Vizela.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vizela see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 71%, Belenenses 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Vizela and 14% for Belenenses.
On the defensive side: Vizela have failed to score in 29% of games; Belenenses in 86%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Vizela's recent matches and 14% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Vizela's recent games and 14% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Belenenses tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vizela cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Belenenses.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vizela beat Belenenses 2-0 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 0.88 xG and Belenenses 0.92 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vizela beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Belenenses landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 0.72 / defence 1.23 against Belenenses attack 0.53 / defence 1.10, drawn from 15/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 32% | Draw 34% | Belenenses 34%, with Belenenses to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Vizela win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 43%, Belenenses 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Belenenses's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vizela 0.93 PPG, Belenenses 0.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vizela win broke the near-deadlock. Vizela (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.