Sporting CP 1-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sporting CP (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sporting CP face Famalicao.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sporting CP and Famalicao meet at Estádio José Alvalade in Primeira Liga (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 August 2023 at 21:30 UK time.
Current Form
Sporting CP's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sporting CP's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Famalicao (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Famalicao away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Sporting CP's favour (2.60 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sporting CP's last 10 home games and Famalicao's last 10 away games) — Sporting CP have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Famalicao in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Sporting CP, who have won 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against Famalicao — Famalicao have 0 wins, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Sporting CP 2–1 Famalicao — a Sporting CP win.
The head-to-head data gives Sporting CP an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Famalicao — key trading statistics (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 50% versus Famalicao 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 72% | Famalicao 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 1.78 xG and Famalicao 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.241 / defence 1.010 | Famalicao attack 1.109 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.246. Data: built from Sporting CP's last 36 games and Famalicao's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 47% | Draw 23% | Famalicao 30%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 2.14 | Draw 4.33 | Famalicao 3.30. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.78 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sporting CP if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sporting CP's last 10 home games and Famalicao's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sporting CP 60% (last 10 home games) | Famalicao 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Sporting CP 36 games, Famalicao 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 3 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 47% | Draw 23% | Famalicao 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Sporting CP 1.78 / Famalicao 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.241 / def 1.010 | Famalicao attack 1.109 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Famalicao xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sporting CP vs Famalicao FAQs
What time does Sporting CP vs Famalicao kick off?
Sporting CP vs Famalicao kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Sporting CP 1 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Sporting CP vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs Famalicao part of?
Sporting CP vs Famalicao is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 3) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 47% chance of winning, Famalicao a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sporting CP and Famalicao will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sporting CP vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sporting CP's attack at 1.24x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (1.11x) against Sporting CP's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from Sporting CP's last 36 games and Famalicao's last 36, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
47%
2.14
23%
4.33
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
3.17
1.40
Famalicao xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
17%
5.93
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
5%
19.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sporting CP vs Famalicao Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.40 for Famalicao, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sporting CP's recent record stands at 25W 5D 6L from 36 games, a 2.22 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 16L across 36 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sporting CP by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Famalicao heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sporting CP have managed 14W 2D 2L from their last 18 home games — 2.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across their last 18 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sporting CP are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.14 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Early Season
Famalicao
Early Season
Sporting CP (Home) vs Famalicao (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sporting CP
Early Season
Famalicao
Early Season
❓ Sporting CP vs Famalicao Form FAQs
What form are Sporting CP and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 25W 5D 6L in their last 36 games (2.22 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 14W 6D 16L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or Famalicao away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.44 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Famalicao in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won Famalicao 0-3 Sporting CP on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sporting CP have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Sporting CP
1
Draws
0
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Sporting CP vs Famalicao H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and Famalicao?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sporting CP have won 9, Famalicao have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and Famalicao last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Famalicao 1-1 Sporting CP.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and Famalicao?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sporting CP 50%, Famalicao 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Sporting CP and 56% for Famalicao. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Famalicao in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sporting CP vs Famalicao Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sporting CP and Famalicao matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 56% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sporting CP and Famalicao matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Sporting CP's matches and 56% of Famalicao's.
Do Sporting CP and Famalicao matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 61% of Famalicao's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Famalicao 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Famalicao 1-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.78 xG and Famalicao 1.40 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.24 / defence 1.01 against Famalicao attack 1.11 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 47% | Draw 23% | Famalicao 30%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 72%, Famalicao 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Famalicao's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Primeira Liga fixtures — matchday 3
All Primeira Liga fixtures →
More Portuguese football predictions →