SC Braga vs GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Braga vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 2 as SC Braga welcome GIL Vicente to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 August 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Braga — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Braga have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Braga at this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, GIL Vicente have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (SC Braga) versus 1.20 (GIL Vicente). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Braga register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, GIL Vicente in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for SC Braga, 3 for GIL Vicente and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with GIL Vicente winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SC Braga trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
GIL Vicente trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 57% versus GIL Vicente 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 69% | GIL Vicente 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 1.61 xG and GIL Vicente 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.114 / defence 1.016 | GIL Vicente attack 0.929 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.173. Data: 35 SC Braga games / 35 GIL Vicente games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Braga 49% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 26%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | GIL Vicente 3.85. SC Braga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Braga at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Braga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Braga 70% | GIL Vicente 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 49% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG SC Braga 1.61 / GIL Vicente 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 1.114 / def 1.016 | GIL Vicente attack 0.929 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
1.11
GIL Vicente xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs GIL Vicente kick off?
SC Braga vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 19:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026.
What competition is SC Braga vs GIL Vicente part of?
SC Braga vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 49% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SC Braga and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and GIL Vicente?
Record (10 meetings): SC Braga 5W | Draws 2 | GIL Vicente 3W.
What form are SC Braga and GIL Vicente in?
SC Braga (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SC Braga's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus SC Braga's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
49%
2.03
25%
4.04
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
SC Braga xG
Total xG
2.72
1.11
GIL Vicente xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
5%
19.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SC Braga and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for SC Braga and 1.11 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Braga's recent record stands at 16W 12D 7L from 35 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SC Braga, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 10L across 35 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Braga on 1.71 PPG, GIL Vicente on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Braga have managed 8W 6D 3L from 17 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 4W 8D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Braga are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.37 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: GIL Vicente in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 16W 12D 7L in their last 35 games (1.71 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 14W 11D 10L in their last 35 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or GIL Vicente away?
SC Braga's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 1.76 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.18 PPG.
Have SC Braga or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Braga and GIL Vicente runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
SC Braga's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Braga
2
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 5, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-1 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and GIL Vicente?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Braga 53%, GIL Vicente 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SC Braga and 53% for GIL Vicente. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 35%; GIL Vicente in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of SC Braga's recent matches and 47% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Braga vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SC Braga's matches and 53% of GIL Vicente's.
Do SC Braga and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SC Braga's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga and GIL Vicente finished level at 0-0 at , Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 1.61 xG and GIL Vicente 1.11 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SC Braga fell 1.6 short of their projected output. GIL Vicente landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.11 / defence 1.02 against GIL Vicente attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 49% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 26%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 69%, GIL Vicente 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Braga 1.71 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.