Santa Clara 1-1 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portimonense at 41%, yet in-form Santa Clara provide a compelling counter-argument — this Santa Clara vs Portimonense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Santa Clara welcome Portimonense to Estádio de São Miguel. Kick-off is set for Monday 21 February 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Santa Clara have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio de São Miguel, Santa Clara have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Portimonense stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Portimonense have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Santa Clara carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Santa Clara have won 0, Portimonense 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Portimonense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Santa Clara trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Portimonense trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 64% versus Portimonense 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santa Clara 68% | Portimonense 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.21 xG and Portimonense 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 1.059 / defence 1.221 | Portimonense attack 0.834 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.077 / away 1.354. Data: 22 Santa Clara games / 22 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 33% | Draw 27% | Portimonense 41%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Portimonense 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portimonense at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Santa Clara (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portimonense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Santa Clara 50% | Portimonense 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Monday 21 Feb 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 33% | Draw 27% | Portimonense 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Santa Clara 1.21 / Portimonense 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 1.059 / def 1.221 | Portimonense attack 0.834 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.077 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Portimonense xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Portimonense kick off?
Santa Clara vs Portimonense kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 21 February 2022 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Portimonense?
Santa Clara 1 - 1 Portimonense.
Where is Santa Clara vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Portimonense part of?
Santa Clara vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 33% chance of winning, Portimonense a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Santa Clara and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Portimonense?
Record (1 meetings): Santa Clara 0W | Draws 0 | Portimonense 1W.
What form are Santa Clara and Portimonense in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Portimonense (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Santa Clara's attack rating (1.06) and Portimonense's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Portimonense's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
33%
3.07
27%
3.74
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.58
1.38
Portimonense xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.4 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.38 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Santa Clara's recent record stands at 6W 6D 10L from 22 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portimonense, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 9L across 22 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 1.09 PPG, Portimonense on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Santa Clara have managed 5W 2D 3L from 10 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Santa Clara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Portimonense's away record stands at 5W 2D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.23 PPG overall record — Portimonense travel well.
The Goals Picture
Santa Clara are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 1.00 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Santa Clara have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Portimonense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Portimonense away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.70 PPG; Portimonense away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Portimonense in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santa Clara and Portimonense runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Santa Clara's record when hosting Portimonense specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Santa Clara
2
Draws
1
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Portimonense?
From 4 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 1, Portimonense have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2023, when Santa Clara 1-0 Portimonense.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 50%, Portimonense 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Santa Clara) and 40% (Portimonense).
On the defensive side: Portimonense in 50%; Santa Clara have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 30% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Santa Clara's recent games and 40% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Portimonense tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Santa Clara and Portimonense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 23, as Santa Clara and Portimonense drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.21 xG and Portimonense 1.38 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 1.06 / defence 1.22 against Portimonense attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 33% | Draw 27% | Portimonense 41%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 68%, Portimonense 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Portimonense's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.09 PPG, Portimonense 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.