Portimonense 1-0 Chaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portimonense at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portimonense vs Chaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Portimonense welcome Chaves to Estádio Municipal de Portimão. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 September 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Portimonense — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Portimonense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Portimonense have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Municipal de Portimão this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chaves stand at 3W 2D 3L from 8 Primeira Liga matches — 1.38 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Chaves have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chaves away from home this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Portimonense at 1.80 PPG versus Chaves's 1.38. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Portimonense in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Chaves in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Portimonense 25% | Chaves 38%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Portimonense 50% | Chaves 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.21 xG and Chaves 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.935 / defence 0.924 | Chaves attack 0.978 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.162. Data: 40 Portimonense games / 6 Chaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 40% | Draw 29% | Chaves 32%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Chaves 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portimonense at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portimonense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Portimonense 60% | Chaves 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Chaves | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 40% | Draw 29% | Chaves 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Portimonense 1.21 / Chaves 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.935 / def 0.924 | Chaves attack 0.978 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Chaves xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Chaves kick off?
Portimonense vs Chaves kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Chaves?
Portimonense 1 - 0 Chaves.
Where is Portimonense vs Chaves being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Chaves part of?
Portimonense vs Chaves is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Chaves?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 40% chance of winning, Chaves a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Chaves?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Portimonense and Chaves will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Chaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Chaves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portimonense and Chaves in?
Portimonense (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Chaves (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Portimonense's attack at 0.94x the league average against Chaves's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chaves's attack versus Portimonense's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.50
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.26
1.05
Chaves xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.20
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Chaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Chaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.05 for Chaves, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Chaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Portimonense's recent record stands at 5W 0D 3L from 8 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Portimonense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chaves, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 3L across 8 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Portimonense by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chaves heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Portimonense have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chaves's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Portimonense are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Chaves are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Portimonense have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Early Season
Chaves
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Chaves in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 5W 0D 3L in their last 8 games (1.88 PPG), while Chaves have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Chaves away?
Portimonense's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.50 PPG; Chaves away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Portimonense or Chaves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Chaves in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Portimonense have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Portimonense's record when hosting Chaves specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Portimonense
0
Draws
1
Chaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Chaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 3, Chaves have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Chaves last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Chaves 2-3 Portimonense.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Chaves?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Portimonense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portimonense 50%, Chaves 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Portimonense) and 50% (Chaves).
On the defensive side: Chaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Chaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Chaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Portimonense's recent matches and 25% of Chaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Chaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Portimonense's recent games and 50% of Chaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Chaves tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chaves in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portimonense edge out Chaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Chaves 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 7, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.21 xG and Chaves 1.05 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chaves landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Chaves attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 40% | Draw 29% | Chaves 32%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 50%, Chaves 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chaves's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Portimonense arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.38. Form held, and they took the win. Portimonense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Chaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.