Pacos Ferreira 0-3 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacos Ferreira at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense meet at Estádio da Capital do Móvel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Monday 15 August 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pacos Ferreira have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacos Ferreira at Estádio da Capital do Móvel this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Portimonense (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Portimonense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Portimonense have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Pacos Ferreira, 0.90 for Portimonense — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Pacos Ferreira 1W, Portimonense 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Pacos Ferreira — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Portimonense — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 43% versus Portimonense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pacos Ferreira 31% | Portimonense 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.39 xG and Portimonense 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.977 / defence 1.062 | Portimonense attack 0.911 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.016. Data: 35 Pacos Ferreira games / 35 Portimonense games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 46% | Draw 27% | Portimonense 27%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Portimonense 3.70. Pacos Ferreira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacos Ferreira at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pacos Ferreira if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pacos Ferreira 70% | Portimonense 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 46% | Draw 27% | Portimonense 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.39 / Portimonense 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.977 / def 1.062 | Portimonense attack 0.911 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Pacos Ferreira (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Portimonense xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense kicked off at 20:30 on Monday 15 August 2022 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense?
Pacos Ferreira 0 - 3 Portimonense.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 46% chance of winning, Portimonense a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pacos Ferreira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense?
Record (2 meetings): Pacos Ferreira 1W | Draws 1 | Portimonense 0W.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Portimonense (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pacos Ferreira's attack rating (0.98) and Portimonense's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Portimonense's attack (0.91x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacos Ferreira Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.69
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.38
0.98
Portimonense xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 0.98 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Pacos Ferreira have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 9W 11D 15L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Portimonense's form line: 10W 8D 17L from 35 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Portimonense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Pacos Ferreira against 1.09 for Portimonense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pacos Ferreira have posted 1.24 PPG from 17 outings (5W 6D 6L).
On the road, Portimonense have gone 6W 4D 7L from 17 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 0.89 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Early Season
Portimonense
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 9W 11D 15L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Portimonense away?
Portimonense's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 1.24 PPG; Portimonense away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Portimonense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Portimonense won 0-3 on 15 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Portimonense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
2
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, Portimonense have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2023, when Portimonense 1-0 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 59%, Portimonense 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Pacos Ferreira) and 29% (Portimonense).
On the defensive side: Portimonense in 35%; Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 29% of games; Portimonense in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Pacos Ferreira's recent matches and 29% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 29% of Portimonense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Portimonense tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Portimonense run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pacos Ferreira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portimonense beat Pacos Ferreira 0-3 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.39 xG and Portimonense 0.98 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pacos Ferreira fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Portimonense outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Portimonense attack 0.91 / defence 1.07, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 46% | Draw 27% | Portimonense 27%, with Pacos Ferreira to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Portimonense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 31%, Portimonense 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Portimonense's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacos Ferreira 1.09 PPG, Portimonense 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portimonense win broke the near-deadlock. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portimonense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.