Pacos Ferreira 0-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pacos Ferreira face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Benfica travel to Estádio da Capital do Móvel to take on Pacos Ferreira. The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 January 2023, 20:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacos Ferreira stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira at Estádio da Capital do Móvel this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 home games — 0.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Benfica — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Benfica have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Pacos Ferreira.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2022, ended 2–3 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Pacos Ferreira trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Benfica trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 43% versus Benfica 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacos Ferreira 37% | Benfica 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 0.75 xG and Benfica 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.724 / defence 1.276 | Benfica attack 1.351 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 0.994. Pacos Ferreira's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Benfica's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — the away xG of 1.72 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Pacos Ferreira games / 51 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 16% | Draw 24% | Benfica 60%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 6.25 | Draw 4.17 | Benfica 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacos Ferreira 40% | Benfica 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Jan 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 16% | Draw 24% | Benfica 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG Pacos Ferreira 0.75 / Benfica 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.724 / def 1.276 | Benfica attack 1.351 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.333 / away 0.994 • Poisson stance: Benfica (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Benfica xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica kicked off at 20:15 on Thursday 26 January 2023 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica?
Pacos Ferreira 0 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 16% chance of winning, Benfica a 60% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Benfica?
Record (3 meetings): Pacos Ferreira 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 3W.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Benfica in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Benfica (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pacos Ferreira's attack at 0.72x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Pacos Ferreira's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (12.5%), 1-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
16%
6.22
24%
4.26
60%
1.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.47
1.72
Benfica xG
6.22
16%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
1.66
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
18%
5.56
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
3%
34.56
28%
3.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.72 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacos Ferreira come into this having played 51 games, going 10W 14D 27L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.31 PPG from 51 outings (37W 7D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.45 PPG clear of Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pacos Ferreira's home form reads 4W 8D 13L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 2.40 points per game from 25 outings (19W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.37 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Benfica in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 10W 14D 27L in their last 51 games (0.86 PPG), while Benfica have gone 37W 7D 7L in their last 51 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 0.80 PPG; Benfica away: 2.40 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Benfica in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacos Ferreira and Benfica runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pacos Ferreira's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Pacos Ferreira
0
Draws
4
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Benfica?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 0, Benfica have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2023, when Pacos Ferreira 0-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 56%, Benfica 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Pacos Ferreira) and 56% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 56%; Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Pacos Ferreira's recent matches and 40% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 56% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Benfica tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Benfica in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pacos Ferreira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Pacos Ferreira 0-2 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 0.75 xG and Benfica 1.72 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.72 / defence 1.28 against Benfica attack 1.35 / defence 0.78, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 16% | Draw 24% | Benfica 60%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 37%, Benfica 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.